NFL Week 11 Best Bets
A 3-0 sweep in the late games this past Sunday put me back over .500 for the Week 11 action in the NFL, with a 4-3 finish overall. This, my NFL Best Bets mark gets pushed to 42-26 (61.8%) for the season, including 8-1 on totals now after the Cowboys-Giants game flew easily over the number. I’d be remiss if I didn’t properly credit the new feature, the weekly VSiN NFL Analytics Reports, because they are essentially guiding my handicapping. I have seven more plays lined up for Sunday on the NFL slate.
NY Giants at Washington
Typically, I am the first NFL bettor to run away from big favorites, and you’ll see in a little bit that I am backing one of the double-digit dogs of this week, but seriously, how could anyone right now think that the Giants are capable of staying in yet another road game. This is their third straight away contest, and it comes after getting outscored 79-23 in the two most recent games. Sure, injuries have taken a toll, but this team’s woes are way more than that right now. I can’t think of a team going into this week with less confidence.
For the record, I studied this the other day and found out that teams playing a third straight road game are 46-79 SU and 56-68-1 ATS (45%) since 2000 (2-5 SU and ATS LY), including 15-32 SU and 20-27 ATS (43%) division games. They are also 1-20 SU and 9-11-1 ATS (45%) as dogs of 7+ since 2010.
At the same time, Washington is showing some nice signs offensively, putting up 77 points in their last three outings. The Commanders are also getting backed by a nice rematch angle here: Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 40-12 SU and 35-17 ATS (67.3%) in the rematch contest. Tell me this: f Washington gets to 20+ points, which is likely, can the Giants cover any longer?