New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 7-29-2022

NL East foes will begin a three-game series on Friday night when the New York Mets visit the Miami Marlins at loanDepot Park. The Mets are atop the division at 61-37 after sweeping the crosstown rival New York Yankees in two games capped by a 3-2 win on Wednesday as a -190 favorite. Miami took two of three from the Cincinnati Reds with a 7-6 victory on Thursday to cash in as a +118 underdog and improve to 47-52 on the season.

New York currently holds a 7-4 advantage so far in 2022. The Marlins haven't won aseason series against the Mets since 2017.

There's been nothing but bad news on the injury front for the Marlins lately, so grabbing a series win over the Reds including a strong come-from-behind effort in the rubber game on Thursday provided a much-needed lift of spirits. Jesus Aguilar got Miami on the board with a two-run homer in the third before adding a two-run double in the seventh. Down one in the ninth, the Marlins tied it on Jesus Sanchez's solo shot before Joey Wendle hit the go-ahead RBI double to decide things.

Starter Daniel Castano got two outs before being struck by a line drive and leaving with injury. Zach Pop was credited with the win for a scoreless frame, while Tanner Scott recorded his 14th save despite allowing a run. Aguilar had a three-hit game with four RBI overall, while Jacob Stallings went 2-3 with a double and a run scored.

“We ended up on a positive on the trip, and just inc redible fight. I felt like guys stepped up in all different areas. Had to use guys in different spots in the game where they're not used to pitching. I thought our guys just hung in there,” manager Don Mattingly said to MLB.com. 

Miami is down a significant amount on the money line for the season while going 44-54 on the run line. Overs are 46-49-3 for the Marlins including an even 3-3 over their last six games.

The recent slump has knocked the Marlins to near the bottom of the leaderboard at 4.00 runs per game on a .677 team OPS. A young Marlins pitching staff has impressed with a 3.82 ERA including a mark of 3.87 out of the bullpen.

Wendle has been solid at the plate, batting .293/.339/.396  with seven steals and 20 RBI. Nick Fortes has also impressed in 31 games, putting up an .803 OPS with four homers and 21 runs scored.

Ace Sandy Alcantara is set to make his 21st sta rt of the season, hoping to continue a Cy Young-worthy campaign as he's 9-4 with a 1.81 ERA across 144.1 innings. The 26-year-old is coming off a short outing by his lofty standards on Sunday, as he went six innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates allowing two runs on two hits and three walks while piling up 10 strikeouts.

Miami is missing missing a number of key position players with first baseman Garrett Cooper (wrist contusion), second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (stress fracture in back), utilityman Jon Berti (strained groin), third baseman Brian Anderson (sprained shoulder) and outfielder Jorge Soler (back spasms) on the IL. Top starting pitching prospect Max Meyer suffered a torn UCL shortly after making his MLB debut, with Edward Cabrera (elbow tendinitis) and Jesus Luzardo (strained forearm) also missing from the rotation. The bullpen is also missing a ton of players with Anthony Bender (back tightness), Paul Campbell (strained elbow), Sean Guenther ( Tommy John surgery), Elieser Hernandez (COVID), Jordon Holloway (elbow impingement), Tommy Nance (strained groin), Cody Poteet (elbow inflammation), Cole Sulser (strained lat) and Jimmy Yacabonis (strained groin) all out.

  
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