Our New Year's Six predictions are rounding up our betting experts' top picks for the best weekend of the college football season based on the best college football odds.
We've been tracking the college bowl game odds throughout December, and bowl season culminates with the biggest six games of the NCAAF season with the action spread over three days this weekend. We're rounding up all of our betting experts' top New Year's Six predictions and college football picks.
Ohio State and Missouri will play in the 2023 Cotton Bowl on Friday as the opener to the marquee six-game slate. The two College Football Playoff matchups between Michigan and Alabama, and Washington and Texas will conclude the action on New Year's Day with the college football championship odds being set late on Monday night.
New Year's Six predictions 2023-24
Missouri vs. Ohio State prediction: Missouri +2 (-110 via bet365)
The Buckeyes should be at full strength defensively, which is a terrifying thought for a unit that ranked second in scoring and fourth in EPA/play. Yet Missouri's offense ranked 17th in EPA/play – just five spots below Ohio State – and was even better at creating explosive plays and avoiding critical mistakes than Friday's counterparts.
Ryan Day might still have more aggregate talent at his disposal on Friday, even with opt-outs, but Eliah Drinkwitz's group hung for four quarters with Georgia and LSU, and won their other 10 games by an average of 15 points. Give me the points on the team with more continuity, more experience under center, and a heck of a lot more to play for. – Pick made by C Jackson Cowart
Ole Miss vs. Penn State prediction: Under 48.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
For as good as QB Jaxson Dart and the Rebels' offense has been, they've faced just one top-10 scoring defense this season. In that game, they scored just 17 points against the Georgia Bulldogs. The next-best defense they faced was that of the Alabama Crimson Tide. They scored just 10 in that contest.
Both of these offenses have the potential to put a lot of points on the board, but the defenses in this matchup are simply better. The fact that oddsmakers are reluctant to move this number up despite support from the betting public is a further indication that they expect this to be a low-scoring game. – Pick made by Philip Wood
Georgia vs. Florida State prediction: Florida State team total Under 12.5 points (-105 via DraftKings)
I want nothing to do with this point spread, which opened at Georgia -14 and has touched as high as -20 across our best sports betting sites. That said, the Seminoles have lost too much talent from their previously elite defense to consider betting the full game Under.
Instead, I'd much rather directly target this depleted Florida State offense against a defense that remains one of the most terrifying in college football, even if not up to the historic standards of recent years.
I'm always leery of a backdoor cover in any bowl game with questionable motivations for either side, which certainly applies here. That's why this is ultimately a three-star play for me.
If Georgia's defense takes this game remotely seriously, though, I wouldn't be shocked to see fewer than 7.5 points (+195 via DraftKings) for QB Brock Glenn and Co. – Pick made by C Jackson Cowart
Liberty vs. Oregon prediction: Oregon -16.5 (-110 via bet365) ????
At the time of writing, there are no props available Oregon QB Bo Nix. Howe ver, we expect his passing yards and passing touchdowns props to be set high, especially when you consider that Oregon Over 42.5 is currently going for -110. Therefore, we recommend playing the Ducks to cover the spread.
The Flames are a great story, and their offense is averaging 40.8 points per game. But they haven't faced a defense as good as Oregon's this season. Even with opt-outs, the Ducks are going to dominate Liberty QB Kaidon Salter and win this game by close to four touchdowns. – Pick made by Philip Wood.
Alabama vs. Michigan prediction: Alabama +1.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ?????
Let's address the elephant in the room: while Alabama is on the rise, Michigan hasn't looked like the same team that steamrolled opponents before analyst Connor Stalions, the staffer tied to the sign-stealing scandal, resigned. Whether that's because of the scheme itself or the cloud over this p rogram, the results have been clear to see.
It's equally hard to ignore Harbaugh's record in a spot like this. Michigan has gone 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 bowl games, while Nick Saban's Alabama group has won at least one postseason game in eight straight years and 12 of the last 14, and it's posted a 13-2 ATS record in its last 15 games with multiple weeks to prepare.
Alabama has faced one of the nation's toughest schedules and is the most talented team top-to-bottom in the country, with a star quarterback who is finally playing like one. It also hasn't been an underdog to a non-SEC school in 15 years.
I've labeled only one bowl game wager thus far as a five-star play: West Virginia -6.5 vs. North Carolina (WVU won by 20). This one deserves a five-star endorsement, too. This feels like a rare value spot on the Crimson Tide, and I will surely be taking advantage. – Pick made by C Jackson C owart.
Texas vs. Washington prediction: Washington +4.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ????
The best unit on the field might be the Longhorns' defensive line, anchored by future pros Byron Murphy and T'Vondre Sweat. Those two will make plays on Monday, and if Texas wins this matchup, you can be sure one of them will be at the center of it all.
Standing in their way, though, is a Washington offensive line that transformed midseason into one of the best units in the country – in pass protection and in the run game. That's helped spring free top rusher Dillon Johnson (1,113 yards, 14 TDs), who averaged 136.6 yards over his final five games.
As much credit as Sarkisian deserves for Texas' resurgence, I'm not sure I'd want to be on the other side of a DeBoer-coached team with a month to prepare. There's value on the moneyline (+158 via bet365), which I& #39;m betting in addition to this market-high spread of +4.5 at FanDuel. – Pick made by C Jackson Cowart.
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