The UTEP Miners host the New Mexico State Aggies, as we make our best New Mexico State vs. UTEP prediction based on the best college football odds.
The New Mexico State Aggies are on a roll with consecutive wins, including a notable 27-13 triumph over the Sam Houston Bearkats in Week 7. This success has elevated their season record to 4-3, with a 2-1 standing in Conference USA play. Impressively, six out of their seven games this season were decided by a margin of 10 points or more.
On the other hand, the UTEP Miners face an uphill battle in their quest for bowl eligibility. Their season got off to a rocky start at 2-5, requiring them to win four of their remaining five games to secure a spot in a bowl game. Encouragingly, they took a step in the right direction with a 27-14 victory over the FIU Panthers in their most recent game, marking their first win against an FBS team this season.
Here is our best New Mexico State vs. UTEP prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
New Mexico State vs. UTEP prediction: Week 8
The Miners recorded a 20-13 victory when these teams met in El Paso last season, failing to cover as 17-point favorites. New Mexico State quarterback Diego Pavia was splitting time with Gavin Frakes last season but was just 7-for-20 passing for 100 yards in the loss. He's looked comfortable this year as the primary signal-caller.
Pavia has recorded over 200 passing yards in five of seven games this season, a number he only hit twice in 12 games last year. He's also dangerous in the run game, going for 429 rushing yards this season on an average of 5.6 yards per carry. He should have plenty of space to operate against a UTEP defense that gives up 177.1 ru shing yards per game.
The Miners face uncertainty as freshman QB Cade McConnell looks set to start his second game of the season. He was very good against the Panthers last week, but his numbers were aided greatly by an 80-yard touchdown pass. We have often seen young quarterbacks come in and impress, then struggle once teams gameplan for them.
The Aggies' defense allows 23.1 points per game, but they've held their last four opponents to 20 or fewer. This is a tough matchup for the Miners, and they're unlikely to keep up, considering how the Aggies are playing.
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New Mexico State vs. UTEP best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | -3 | -3.5 | -3 | -3 |
| -110 | -115 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
BetMGM is offering -3.5 for a price of -105, and while that's the best price available, we don't recommend taking the half-point above the key number. The Aggies are playing well, but they're far from a sure thing on the road.
The other four major sportsbooks are listing the spread at -3. DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365 offer a price of -110, so we'd bet there rather than FanDuel where the price is -115.
New Mexico State vs. UTEP odds
New Mexico State vs. UTEP odds analysis
The Miners opened as 1.5-point favorites, but with the expectation that McConnell will start Wednesday night, they've moved to 3 or 3.5-point underdogs at the best sports betting sites. The action continues to pour in on the Aggieis despite the line movement.
The total opened at 49.5, where it's stayed at three of the five major sportsbooks despite most wagers backing the Under. The number has dropped at the other two sportsbooks, and we expect the three clinging to the opening total to follow suit. Look for this number to be 48 or 48.5 on Wednesday night.
New Mexico State vs. UTEP game info
- When: Wednesday, Oct. 18 at 9 p.m. ET
- Where: Sun Bowl, El Paso, TX
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 61 degrees, 6-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation
New Mexico State vs. UTEP prediction made 10/16/2023 at 2:23 p.m. ET.
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