The New Mexico State Aggies and Louisiana Tech Bulldogs kick off the Week 9 college football slate with an early-week Tuesday matchup, and we offer our best New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech prediction based on the best college football odds.
New Mexico State (5-3, 3-1 CUSA) enters on a three-game winning streak, beating FIU, Sam Houston, and UTEP by 14 or more points each.
Meanwhile, Louisiana Tech (3-5, 2-2 CUSA) has lost back-to-back games and four out of its last five. The only victory mixed in that span was a road win against UTEP, a bottom-three team.
Here is our best New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech prediction: Week 9
It is not often one sees a 5-3 team on a three-game winning streak as an underdog against a 3-5 team that has lost back-to-back games, so consider this play on the Bulldogs a contrarian one as we suspect the oddsmakers have an angle with making this line.
Despite poor offensive metrics, Louisiana Tech still ranks middle of the pack in CUSA (fifth of nine teams) with 26.6 points per game and is one of only three teams in the conference to average 238-plus passing yards per game. The Bulldogs may rank 96th in Offensive Success Rate, but they are an offense predicated on big plays, as they rank 24th in Offensive Explosiveness.
While New Mexico State's defense ranks in the top 20 in Passing Downs Explosiveness, the Aggies' three-game winning streak has come against the three lowest-scoring teams in the conference , two of which (UTEP and Sam Houston) average fewer than 17 points per game.
In New Mexico State's lone game against an upper-echelon scoring CUSA team, a road contest against Liberty, the Aggies were gashed 526 total yards and 11.0 yards per pass. The Flames also held a 15-minute time of possession advantage, were +2 in turnover margin, and had a balanced offensive attack with 250 rushing yards.
Thus, the Aggies' defensive metrics do not tell the whole story, as their competition will ramp up significantly in this matchup against the Bulldogs. This is a four-star play, as three of Louisiana Tech's five losses have been by one possession, and it is an undervalued team as a slight favorite while covering three of its four games after losses.
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New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 |
| -110 | -102 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
BetRivers is our go-to shop as Louisiana Tech backers since it is a full point lower than our best sports betting apps. We are only making this a play at anything under a field goal, so this would be a pass if the line ever gets -3, like at our best sports betting sites.
New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech odds
New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech odds analysis
FanDuel and BetMGM have seen similar movements since opening at Bulldogs -1.5. Caesars was the only shop to get to -3 on Sunday night, but the line moved back to -2.5 before going back to -3. Early wagers are split 60/40 in favor of Louisiana Tech.
BetRivers is also the only sportsbook that differs from the others regarding the total, as it offers an O/U of 51, while all others are a half-point higher at 51.5. The Over has received 67% of the early wagers , despite Louisiana Tech having an O/U record of 4-4 and the Under cashing in five of New Mexico State's eight games.
New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech game info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 24 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Joe Aillett Stadium, Ruston, LA
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 85 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph SE
New Mexico State-Louisiana Tech prediction made 10/23/2023 at 6:06 a.m. ET.
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