The New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) visit University Stadium to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs (4-8) on Dec. 16 in Albuquerque, NM.
New Mexico State is a betting favorite in Week 16, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).
The New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Over/Under is 51.5 total points.
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New Mexico State vs Fresno State Prediction, New Mexico Bowl
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts New Mexico State will win this bowl game with 63.0% confidence.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State Spread Prediction, New Mexico Bowl
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico State will cover the spread with 55.6% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico State and Fresno St, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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New Mexico State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- New Mexico State has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+17.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games (+11.05 Units / 61% ROI)
- New Mexico State have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Fresno State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Fresno State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for New Mexico State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best New Mexico State Player Prop Bets Today
- Diego Pavia has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Jamoni Jones has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Diego Pavia has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Diego Pavia has hit the Passing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Star Thomas has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Fresno State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Fresno State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jaelen Gill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Erik Brooks has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Logan Fife has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Mikey Keene has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Malik Sherrod has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
New Mexico State is 10-3 against the spread this college football season (+6.75 Units / 43.83% ROI).
- New Mexico State is 10-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.8 Units / 50.24% ROI
- New Mexico State is 5-9 when betting the Over for -4.9 Units / -31.82% ROI
- New Mexico State is 9-5 when betting the Under for +3.5 Units / 22.73% ROI
Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Fresno St is 4-8 against the spread this college football season (-4.8 Units / -36.23% ROI).
- Fresno State is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.35 Units / -19.81% ROI
- Fresno State is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 19.7% ROI
- Fresno State is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -28.03% ROI
New Mexico State is 10-4 (.714) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season– tied for 15th-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .576
New Mexico State is 13-4 (.591) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2022 season– 13th-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .453
New Mexico State is 9-6 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season– tied for 11th-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .416
New Mexico State is 8-1 (.889) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2021 season– tied for 4th-best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: .688
Fresno State is winless (0-3) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .399
Fresno State is 13-5 (.650) when not losing a fumble since the 2022 season– 30th-best in FBS; Average: .507
Fresno State is 11-3 (.688) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2022 season– 27th-best in FBS; Average: .549
Fresno State is 14-5 (.737) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– 30th-best in FBS; Average: .568
Fresno State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.2% of 432 attempts this season — 11th-worst among FBS offenses. New Mexico State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.7% of attempts this season — 22nd-best among FBS defenses.
Fresno State’s WRs has 1.5 receiving touchdowns per game this season — tied for 28th-best among FBS WRs. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed just 1.1 receiving touchdowns per game this season — tied for 17th-best among FBS defenses.