The New Mexico State Aggies (1-1) visit Valley Children’s Stadium to take on the Fresno State Bulldogs (1-1) on Sep. 14 in Fresno, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm EDT.
Fresno St is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -19.5 (-110).
The New Mexico State vs. Fresno State Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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New Mexico State vs Fresno State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Fresno State will win this game with 92.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico State and Fresno St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
New Mexico State vs Fresno State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Fresno State will cover the spread with 58.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
New Mexico State is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.15 Units / -6.67% ROI).
- New Mexico State is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- New Mexico State is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -50% ROI
- New Mexico State is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 45.45% ROI
Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Fresno St is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Fresno State is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -100% ROI
- Fresno State is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
- Fresno State is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
New Mexico State is 6-2 (.667) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .494
New Mexico State is 9-2 (.750) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .566
New Mexico State is 8-3 (.667) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .525
New Mexico State is 8-2 (.667) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .497
Fresno State is 3-1 (.750) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: .585
Fresno State is 6-1 (.667) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .494
Fresno State is 5-2 (.556) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .427