Free Daily NCAAF Lock Pick, Friday October 27th: Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte 7:30pmET
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New England (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS, 2-5 O/U) travels down to Florida to take on Miami (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U) on Sunday at 1pmET in an AFC East matchup.
These teams met on Sept. 17 with the Dolphins winning 24-17 as a 1-point road favorite.
Miami is coming off falling at Philadelphia 31-17 on Sunday night, while the Patriots upset Buffalo 29-25 at home on Sunday as an 8.5-point home dog to give Bill Belichick his 300th regular-season win.
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So much for the rumors swirling about Belichick's future in New England. Before beating Buffalo, it was reported by NFL Network's Ian Rapoport that the Patriots and their future Hall of Fame coach agreed on a multi-year extension prior to the 2023 season. Belichick's team responded by playing their best game of the season, shocking Buffalo 29-25 from Foxborough. The Pats needed a Mac Jones 1-yard TD pass to TE Mike Gesecki with 12 seconds left to get their second victory of the season. After the Bills took a 25-22 lead with 1:58 left, Jones took the game on an eight-play, 75-yard TD drive. He was 7-of-8 on that drive to give him his second game-winning series in two + years as a New England quarterback.
“It’s all about playing for each other, playing for the guy next to you and understanding why,” Jones told reporters on Sunday. “We did that today and we need to continue t o do that every day in practice and in the games.”
Jones spread it out to four different receivers who caught at least 51 yards or more. That included Kendrick Bourne, who caught six passes for 63 yards and a TD. That came off a 10-reception effort against Las Vegas in a 21-17 loss. Consistency has been the problem for this offense, which doesn't run the ball well (85.4ypg). Balance has always been important for New England and without a running game, all the pressure is on Jones. The offense has been pitiful this season, averaging just 294.3 yards per game (25th), but if they can capitalize on their effort against the Bills, that number will go up steadily.
Defensively, the Patriots are solid as they allow 311.3 yards per game and 210.6 passing yards (12th). That will be huge in this game, but not having an excellent pass rusher like Matthew Judon (4 sacks), who is out for 6-8 weeks with a biceps injury, hinders their ability to slow down passers like Tua Tagovailoa. In the first game, Belichick's defense held the Dolphins to just 244 yards passing and 24 points at home.
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Free Daily NCAAF Lock Pick, Friday October 27th: Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte 7:30pmET CLICK TO SEE PICK NOW