Chet Holmgren rightfully favored to win 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year
Before the start of the 2023-24 NBA season, San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama was a -225 favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award. Wembanyama was one of the most hyped prospects in NBA history, so it wasn’t much of a surprise to see him with those odds. The 19-year-old also happens to be averaging 18.5 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game this season. So, it’s not like Wembanyama hasn’t played well. However, I did warn people that Wembanyama’s offensive efficiency might not be there in Year 1, and it hasn’t been thus far. And I advised against betting him to win this award in the 2023-24 VSiN NBA Betting Guide. Now, Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren is the betting favorite to win Rookie of the Year, with the 21-year-old listed as high as -200 to win at some sportsbooks. But the big man is still available at -155 at DraftKings Sportsbook, and I’m here to tell you that I’d still strongly suggest bett ing it — which I also suggested on November 7.
This season, Holmgren is averaging 17.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.7 blocks per game for a Thunder team that is 18-9 on the season (third in the Western Conference). Holmgren has been remarkably efficient as a scorer, shooting 52.6% from the floor, 36.9% from 3 and 85.1% from the free throw line. That’s a key differentiator when looking at Wembanayma’s 43.5% shooting from the floor, 27.9% from 3 and 77.4% from the stripe. Dunks & Threes also has Holmgren with an Offensive EPM of +1.7, which puts him in the 87th percentile in the NBA. And he has been even better defensively, as he has a Defensive EPM of +3.5. That’s the fifth-best mark in the league, making him a legitimate First-Team All-Defense candidate. Meanwhile, Wembanyama has an Offensive EPM of -1.3 and a Defensive EPM of +2.7. Estimated Plus-Minus is one of the most accurate catch-all metrics available.
Realistically, Holmgren is the second-best player on an Oklahoma City team that is doing real damage in the Western Conference this year, and he seems like a lock to make the All-Star team this season. That just makes it extremely hard to believe that Holmgren won’t end up being crowned the best rookie in basketball. The only thing working against Holmgren is that he did miss his actual rookie season because of a Lisfranc injury. Given his slender frame, an injury always feels possible for a player like him. However, the same can also be said for Wembanyama, who missed his last game after barely turning his ankle during warmups before a meeting with the Dallas Mavericks.
Victor Wembanyama ends his pre-game work out early and heads to the locker room frustrated after landing awkwardly on one of the Mavs employees under the basket. pic.twitter.com/wURajkU498
— Landon Thomas (@sixfivelando) December 24, 2023
Legendary Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich has also insisted that Wembanyama’s minutes will need to be limited in order to keep him healthy. We got an early glimpse of that before the ankle injury, as Wembanyama played only 22 minutes in a loss to the Chicago Bulls on December 21. I simply don’t see what Wembanyama can do to pass Holmgren at this point in time, and it’s a two-player race for Rookie of the Year. The two have similar numbers when it comes to traditional stats, but Holmgren has been far more efficient. The Thunder big man is also impacting winning in a way that Wembanyama isn’t. Perhaps things would have been different if Wembanyama was drafted to a team that was ready to compete a bit earlier, but that’s not the case. So, Holmgren just needs to continue to play his game in order to cash this ticket.
All in all, Holmgren’s -155 odds suggest he has roughly a 60% chance of winning this award. But I believe he should be priced closer to -300, which means a 75% implied probability.