Joel Embiid is making a push for the NBA MVP award – but more importantly for bettors, will he score more than 31.5 points on Wednesday? Jon Metler shares his best bets for Wednesday's NBA slate of games using the best NBA odds.
Our NBA best bets for Wednesday are heavily influenced by price shopping, as we caught BetMGM with multiple rogue lines.
This week's NBA best bets are 6-2 for +3.31 units. Let's continue the momentum on Wednesday with a strong focus on player props.
Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.
Wednesday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Memphis Grizzles vs. Miami Heat (-4)
- Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
- Boston Celtics (-5) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
- Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5) vs. Houston Rockets
- Sacramento Kings (-1) vs. Chicago Bulls
- Dallas Mavericks (-6) vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers (-2)
Wednesday's NBA best bets
- Spread: Heat -3.5 vs. Grizzles (-115 via BetMGM) ????
- Player Prop: Joel Embiid Over 31.5 points vs. Cavaliers (-105 via BetMGM) ????
- Player Prop: Zach LaVine Over 27.5 points vs. Kings (-125 via BetMGM) ????
- Player Prop: De'Aaron Fox Over 25.5 points vs. Bulls (-112 via Be tRivers)????
NBA top picks
The Grizzles have won three straight games, but that streak will come to an end on Wednesday when they travel to Miami to face the Heat.
My projections indicate the Heat will win this game by 5.5 points, but BetMGM has them trading as 3.5-point favorites. Only BetMGM is trading the Heat as 3.5-point favorites; they're -4 everywhere else.
Although we must pay an additional five cents in vig to take advantage of this spread of Heat -3.5 (-115) compared to a Heat -4 (-110) at Caesars, it's worth the additional cost in this instance. Since we anticipate the Heat to win by 5.5 points, we can price Heat -3.5 at -136, which gives us a positive expected value of 8% on our wager.
Embiid has scored 19 and 29 points against the Cavaliers this season, so it only makes sense to play Embiid Over 31.5 points on Wednesday. The rogue price of Over 31.5 (-105) from BetMGM might also be why I'm interested.
We project that Embiid will score 32.8 points on Wednesday, which allows us to price this prop at -115 rather than the -105 offered by BetMGM. Sportsbooks such as FanDuel and PointsBet are trading this total one point higher at 32.5 with higher juice at -113 and -115, which reinforces the value of the BetMGM line of Over 31.5 (-105) for us.
LaVine's points prop is all over the place in the market, highlighting the importance of price shopping and using several sportsbooks in order to maximize your edge.
LaVine is trading as high as Over 29.5 (-110) at PointsBet, however, we're able to bet on LaVine at Over 27.5 (-125) at BetMGM. There's also a line of Over 28.5 (-118) available at FanDuel, but based on our projections, Over 27.5 (-125) is still the best line.
As LaVine is projected to score 29.6 points against the Kings, the Over 27.5 should trade closer to -140 than -125. This bet at BetMGM has a positive expected value of 5%, but when you compare this projection to all of the other lines I mentioned above that are available on LaVine, none of them have a positive expected value. It's a prime example of price shopping at its finest.
If LaVine weren't convincing enough, this Fox bet is another compelling reason to use multiple sportsbooks. Both Caesars and PointsBet trade Fox's points total at 26.5 with a juice of -123 and -115. We can bet on Fox at BetRivers for a lower juice of -112, and one less point at 25.5.
In addition to the price shopping opportunity, the projections also like Fox to exceed his total of 25.5 points. We can price the Over 25.5 points at -125 instead of -112 based on Fox's projected scoring output of 27.1 points against the Bulls. On BetRivers, we have an edge, but I wouldn't recommend placing this wager at Caesars or PointsBet with the odds they have posted on Fox.
NBA best bets made 03/15/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
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