NBA on a Thursday night is usually an afterthought with NFL taking center stage, but I love betting on smaller slates. It gives me more time to dive into the matchups and really look at every angle. Tonight, we have the Nets vs Heat followed by the Thunder vs Warriors. Both games have playoff potential, which is always exciting. You can read our NBA picks for each of those matchups, but for now, let's see what player props ma ke the most sense.
Luguentz Dort (OKC) over 4.5 rebounds (-104)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The biggest part of my handicapping is centered around a player’s output per minute and how many minutes they’re on the floor. Once we get a baseline for that, the rest is pretty simple. Dort's median minutes (NOT average) is 30-31 this season. In a game against the Warriors with their smaller lineups, I actually like him in that 32-34 range tonight. I project him at 5.1 rebounds and we're getting this at nearly even-money on FanDuel. Last season in his two games against the Warriors, Dort played 35 and 36 minutes, which was good for 8 and 3 rebounds. This season when playing over 30 minutes, he hits this line in 5 out of 6 games. Let's go with 1U on this.
Read our full Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors prediction