Let’s keep this hot streak going. After splitting our two plays on Thursday, we’ve moved to 7-3 in our last 10 plays. I have an under bet for tonight that will look awfully familiar. Let’s dive into my best NBA player prop bet for Saturday, January 20. Also, make sure you read our NBA predictions for tod ay’s games.
Jalen Green, SG, HOU, Under 18.5 Points (-120)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
People in the player prop industry get caught up in “this team allows this many points to this position” or “this team has allowed four straight guards to cover this line.” Sure, that stuff matters, but I look more for whether the player we’re backing or fading is getting volume, his usage output as of late, and what he’s doing with the lineup expected to play. Tonight, I’m fading Jalen Green, who takes a hit to his usage with Dillon Brooks back in the lineup.
Green has been one of my favorite fades on the season – especially when he’s playing on the road. He sees his shooting splits plummet to 37% on the road compared to 42% at home. 18.5 is a generous number that BetMGM and ESPNBet are offering. I expect this number to move to 17.5 by tipoff. Nonetheless, we’re finding value on these two books, while FanDuel and DraftKings have 18.5 with heavy juice on the under.