A 10-pack of NBA games heading our way Wednesday night and not one team is on a back-to-back.
A few injury statuses to monitor tonight: Anthony Edwards, Josh Hart. Jalen Brunson, Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick White, Luka Doncic and LeBron James are all questionable. I will do my best to find player props that navigate this uncertainty. The biggest story these last few weeks have been the consistent blowouts and uncompetitive play of the NBA. It wreaks havoc on anyone betting overs and forces people to potentially handicap the blowout into their unders. You can read our'NBA picks for tonight’s games, but for now, let’s get into my best NBA player prop bet of the day.
Damian Lillard, SG, MIL, Over 29.5 points + assists (-125)
Damian Lillard is averaging 0.9 points + assists per minute this season with a median minute output of 36, giving us a baseline projection of 32.5 P+A. This is a good line. There are a few 30.5s out there that I would still play at closer to even money. The biggest thing here is the game staying competitive. Milwaukee is a 3.5-point favorite on the road and is covering only 44% as a road favorite, so all indications are that this should be a close game. Lillard has hit this in 58% of games this season, including a 31-point, 4-assist performance against Cleveland at home. I love the number and I also love the little rivalry between Dame and Donovan Mitchell. In 16 career games against Spyda, Lillard averages 30.3 points and 6.1 assists. 1u.