In the first weekend of NBA games since the all-star break, we saw back-to-back large slates of action and we are now met with a relatively quiet 4-game day on the hardwood. However, even with just 4 games to choose from, we have found value on the betting board. I now have a 37-23 record this season for a +18.0% ROI with my NBA player props. Let’s see if I can improve on that tonight. Here are 2 of my favorite NBA player prop bets for Mond ay, February 26, and you can also read our'NBA picks for today’s action.
Cade Cunningham (DET) Under 21.5 points (-119)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The New York Knicks have finally hit somewhat of a skid and they remain without Julius Randle, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson. Yet, they are getting plenty of respect at home against the rebuilding Detroit Pistons, and rightfully so, as they are 11-point favorites. This, alone, is cause for concern with regard to minutes for Pistons starters. Head coach Monty Williams will have a rested bench at his disposal with only 2 members of the roster on the injury report. Indeed, Williams has been freely using his backups early and often, endangering the need for Cade Cunningham to play heavy minutes for 4 quarters.
However, even if you assume full minutes in a close contest for the former #1 overall pick, this line is a tad high. On the season, he has averaged 22.6 points per 35 minutes in games without Bojan Bogdanovic (who is now on the Knicks). New York's defense is banged up but still a tough matchup for top options with a scoring profile like Cunningham, who has primarily relied on close-range shots in the paint and midrange areas. Over their last 7 games, the Knicks’ defense still ranks top-5 in both zones. In this potentially icky gamescript, we project Cunningham for 19.5 points, making this line playable down to a -125 price.