With NBA play-in spots on the line and 6 games on the menu today, it is time to find where the value lies in the betting market for the hardwood. I’m now 40-30 for a +9.0% ROI on the season with NBA player prop bets in this article series. This is my favorite NBA player prop bet for Friday, March 15, but make sure you also find out our'NBA picks for today’s matchups.
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The defending NBA champions are healthy right in time for the biggest moments of the season and their full starting lineup is clicking on all cylinders. Aaron Gordon has a low recent hit rate on this prop against some tougher matchups to wreak havoc on defense but this is a perfect buy-low spot. Since Denver got their squad healthy together on December 2, Gordon averages 1.2 “stocks” per 30 minutes and now faces an inexperienced Spurs offense that has allowed the 4th-most steals per game and 6th-most blocks per game over their last 15 contests. In that span, they have the 7th-highest pass rate and 5th-most paint field-goal attempts per game in the NBA.
We are projecting Gordon for 1.75 steals+blocks in this spot and there is a reason the over is juiced on other books. This prop is playable up to -120.