Thanksgiving Eve provides us with the biggest NBA slate of the week. Realizing the NFL owns Thanksgiving, the NBA pivoted to tonight to give us some of the best matchups we've seen in a while: Bucks vs Celtics, Warriors vs Suns, and Lakers Mavericks. I have my eye on the Dillon Brooks vs Grizzlies matchup as well for a possible revenge factor moment. Both plays are for 1 unit so let's dive into a few props for to night’s slate.
Aaron Gordon (DEN) over 6.5 Rebounds (-120)'
Gordon is averaging 0.21 RPM on a median min output of nearly 35 min and his road min look bad on paper (31 per game), those averages are being brought down due to two massive blowouts that cut him down to 18/23. These are outliers. Let’s pencil him in for that 35min tonight cause the Nuggets will need him against the likes of Paolo Banchero. At 35 min, I project him at 7.35 rebounds tonight. Could the Magic be a little fatigued coming off a b2b? Possibly, but they’re a young squad, I’m less worried. Gordon is a former member of the Magic and has gone OFF against them in the past. Last season vs ORL, he averaged 31P 10.5 REB in 2 games. It was his highest output vs any team. I will comb the books for his best line on a DD but the over 6.5 Rebounds is a safe start for us. Only reason I’m not unloading more $$ on it is if this game becomes a blowout and Gordon sits most of the 4Q.