We're analyzing our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Friday, based on the best NBA odds.
The In-Season Tournament semifinals started with a bang and went out with a dud last night. The Indiana Pacers took down the Milwaukee Bucks with a strong fourth quarter and another monster performance from Tyrese Haliburton. The Los Angeles Lakers thumped the New Orleans Pelicans in a blowout victory, and the two teams will meet in Saturday's championship. Because of the IST, we have 13 games on Friday's slate.
After a huge performance in his last game out, Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers are hoping for a home win over the Atlanta Hawks. Nikola Jokic will look for another productive stat line as the Denver Nuggets host the Houston Rockets, and Dereck Lively II of the Dallas Mavericks gets a favorable matchup against the shorthanded Portland Trail Blazers.
Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Friday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Atlanta Hawks (+260) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (-325)
- Detroit Pistons (+455) vs. Orlando Magic (-625)
- Toronto Raptors (-185) vs. Charlotte Hornets (+154)
- New York Knicks (+220) vs. Boston Celtics (-270)
- Washington Wizards (+320) vs. Brooklyn Nets (-110)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (-245) vs. Memphis Grizzlies (+200)
- Golden State Warriors (+142) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-170)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (-115) vs. Miami Heat (-105)
- Chicago Bulls (-135) vs. San Antonio Spurs (+114)
- Houston Rockets (+285) vs. Denver Nuggets (-360)
- Sacramento Kings (-125) vs. Phoenix Suns (+105)
- Dallas Mavericks (-325) vs. Portland Trail Blazers (+260)< /li>
- Los Angeles Clippers (-258) vs. Utah Jazz (+210)
Friday's NBA best bets
- Joel Embiid Over 34.5 points (+115 via FanDuel) ???
- Nikola Jokic triple-double (+120 via bet365) ????
- Dereck Lively II double-double (+290 via bet365) ???
- Dereck Lively II Over 1.5 blocks (-125 via DraftKings) ????
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Friday's NBA player props
After sitting out two straight games due to an illness, Embiid returned to Philly's lineup without missing a beat. He dominated the Wizards wit h 50 points, posting his sixth straight game with at least 30 points. Over his last 10, he's scored at least 32 points eight times, and his points prop is set at a modest 32.5 points. But we can do better.
The Hawks allow the fourth-most points per game, including the fourth-most points in the paint, which sets Embiid up to dominate. He dropped 32 on Atlanta in his first meeting with the Hawks this season, and he averaged 36 points against them in two home matchups last season. Embiid has six games with at least 35 points this season, and four of them have come at home.
If we take this prop at 32.5 points, our best odds are -115. Selling just one basket's worth of points, we can get those odds at a much more profitable +115, which is offered at both FanDuel and DraftKings.
It's hard to imagine a Jokic triple-double coming in at plus-money odds. This guy posts triple-doubles on a nearly nightly bas is, and they've become so common that they're expected. Over his last six outings, Joker has a ridiculous 72 assists, and he's posted a triple-double in five of his last seven. He's got four straight games with double-digit assists, and tonight's matchup with the Rockets isn't scary.
Houston allows the second-fewest points to opponents overall, but is far better at home (98.8) than on the road (117). The same is true for assists allowed, as the Rockets give up the fewest overall but 20.2 at home and 26.4 on the road. Houston allows the 11th-most rebounds.
In his career, Jokic has six triple-doubles against the Rockets, including two of them this season alone. He's got 70 home triple-doubles compared to 44 road triple-doubles, and his percentage of games with a triple-double is significantly higher at home (22.5%) than on the road (14.4%).
Given his monster play of late, and his big games against the Rockets, we'll target this triple-double prop tonight for Joker in a home matchup.
Luka Doncic has been masterful lately. He's posted two straight triple-doubles and averaged 38 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 14.5 assists in that span. Tonight's matchup with Portland is favorable, and I considered a Doncic triple-double prop. Instead, we'll turn our attention to Doncic's rookie teammate with a chance to get even better plus-money odds.
Lively II has averaged 15 points and 10 boards across his last two games, and he dominated the Thunder to the tune of 20 and 16. He's got three double-doubles on the season, and Portland has been generous in the rebounding department with Deandre Ayton sidelined.
Over the last two games with Ayton out, Kevin Looney and Draymond Green of the Golden State Warriors combined for 18 boards, while the trio of John Collins, Lauri Markkanen, and K elly Olynyk grabbed 28 boards for the Utah Jazz. Portland surrendered 29 offensive rebounds across those two games.
With Ayton out again, expect Lively II to crash the glass and score at least 10 points. This is a great matchup for the rookie, and we'll take the plus-money odds.
There's no reason to stop with the double-double, right? Despite some erratic playing time throughout the season, Lively II has been a consistently strong shot-blocker. He's swatted multiple shots in four straight and six of his last eight games.
Portland allows the second-most blocks to opponents on the season, and with two frontcourt starters out of action, Lively II should have no problem patrolling the paint and rejecting shots of second and third-string players on one of the NBA's worst teams.
NBA best bets made 12/08/2023 at 9:45 a.m. ET
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- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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