Who will take Game 1 in a rematch of LeBron James and Stephen Curry? Our top NBA player props and best bets for Tuesday are based on the best NBA odds.
After another improbable win Sunday, the Miami Heat will look to take a 2-0 lead at Madison Square Garden tonight with a visit to the New York Knicks. Out West, the Los Angeles Lakers head to Chase Center to face the Golden State Warriors in a highly-anticipated rematch between LeBron James and Stephen Curry.
We've got a player prop for the Warriors' first-round hero, a spread bet for Lakers- Dubs, and a total bet for the low-scoring Knicks.
Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Tuesday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's NBA schedule and odds
- Miami Heat ( +6.5) at New York Knicks
- Los Angeles Lakers (+4.5) at Golden State Warriors
Tuesday's NBA best bets
- Player prop: Kevon Looney to be rebound leader (+120 via DraftKings) ???
- Spread: Warriors -4.5 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Lakers ????
- Total: Heat vs. Knicks Under 206.5 (-110 via PointsBet) ????
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Tuesday's NBA player prop picks
There's no arguing that Looney was the Warriors' most valuable player in the seven-game series win over the Sacramento Kings in the first round. Looney joined rare company with three 20-rebound performances in the series, and he averaged a ridiculous 18 boards in Games 3-7.
Looney was great in the regular season on a per-36-minute basis, doing the dirty work and making a huge impact despite limited playing time. Over the final five games of the first-round series, his playing time ballooned to 31 minutes per contest from the 23.9 he averaged in the regular season. In four regular-season matchups with the Lakers, Looney averaged 9.8 boards in 21 minutes. He was the game's leading rebounder once and tied with Anthony Davis in another.
Davis comes into this one having grabbed double-digit boards in 10 of his last 11 with an average of 13.5 in the first round against Memphis. AD averaged 10.5 boards against the Warriors in the regular season, just 0.7 more than Looney in those head-to-head matchups. Looney averaged a whopping 6.8 offensive boards over his last five, and the Lakers allow the sixth-most offensive boards per game.
We're sticking with the player who's been dominating the glass and banking on Looney to lead this game in rebounds. For another betting angle in this game, Shane Jackson gave out a defensive prop in his Lakers vs. Warriors preview earlier today.
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
NBA game picks
The Warriors' struggles on the road have been well-documented this season. Golden State was a healthy 35-9 straight up at home and just 12-32 on the road (regular and postseasons combined). The team covered in 28 of 44 games at Chase Center, and the Warriors' net rating at home was 7.5 compared to -3.6 on the road.
On the other side of the coin, the Lakers won just 14 of 35 games as the road underdog this season and covered in 15 of them. Los Angeles' net rating at home (4.3) was significantly better than its net rating on the road (-2.2 ).
In his career, LeBron James has a 58.8% win rate in Game 1, which is his lowest winning percentage for any of the seven games in a playoff series. He is just 4-14 in Game 1 on the road. Curry is 19-6 in Game 1 overall and 16-2 in when opening the series at home.
This series can go the distance with seven games, and the Warriors have the clear edge at home. James won't need to will his team to victory in Game 1, as he and the Lakers will be looking to win the war and not the battle. Give me Golden State and the points here.
Can the Knicks make it seven straight playoff games hitting the Under? That's what we're counting on tonight. This one opened at 209.5, but it has quickly come down by three points. New York has allowed just 96.5 points per game through six playoff appearances, including 93.3 at home. Totals for New York games have averaged just 196.3 with onl y two going Over 200 total points.
The Heat have the second best offensive rating in the playoffs, but the efficient offense and high point totals are inflated due to a favorable first-round matchup with Milwaukee's lackluster defense. The Knicks sport the fourth-slowest pace of any team in the playoffs at just 93, the second best defensive rating at 103.9, and the best offensive rebound rate.
We can expect the Knicks to slow things down in New York tonight, taking advantage of Jimmy Butler's ankle injury that may keep him at less than 100%.
NBA best bets made 05/02/2023 at 1:20 p.m. ET.
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