Will LeBron James and Anthony Davis be able to lead the Los Angeles Lakers into the NBA playoffs? Jon Metler shares his NBA best bets for Tuesday's schedule using the best NBA odds.
There's been some highs and lows for the Los Angeles Lakers this season, but they've got their chance to make the NBA playoffs when they face the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night.
It's not looking good for my futures bet that the Lakers will not make the playoffs, but if Anthony Davis can score more than 25.5 points against the Timberwolves, it will ease the pain.
Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.
Tuesday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat (-5)
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-8.5)
Tuesday's NBA best bets
- Player prop: Saddiq Bey Over 9.5 points vs. Heat (-108 via Caesars) ????
- Player prop: Anthony Davis Over 25.5 points vs. Timberwolves (-110 via BetMGM) ?????
Tuesday's NBA player prop picks
When I woke up this morning, Saddiq Bey was not the player I anticipated betting on for the play-in tournament on Tuesday, but the math says to go ahead and hit the button.
First and foremost, the projections predict that Bey will score 11.3 points against the Miami Heat, which is significantly higher than his total of 9.5 points. We can price Bey at -150 to go Over 9.5 points with this projection, but we're able to wager on him at -108 via Caesars.
The market is trying to tell us something here with Bey, and I'm listening before it gets steamed so hard that we will be unable to bet on it. At Pinnacle, Bey opened with a total of 8.5 and the Over priced at -123. Bey has since moved up to 9.5 points across the board and is juiced as high as -130 at DraftKings.
It's apparent that the market movements support what we're seeing from our projections, and the information is practically free, given that we can still bet on Bey at Caesars at -108.
I'm giving this bet a five-star rating, and it has nothing to do with Anthony Davis scoring 38 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on March 31. As soon as it was announced t hat Rudy Gobert would be suspended, Davis' points prop increased from 23.5 to 25.5 points.
As Davis is projected to score 28.1 points against the Timberwolves on Tuesday, the Over 25.5 points should be trading at -155 rather than -110. The difference in pricing is significant and indicates a positive expected value of 16% on this bet.
Although the projection is exciting, it's the combination of the projection and the line shopping opportunity that earns this wager a five-star rating. With a price of -110 for the Over on 25.5 points, BetMGM is running rogue. It's a drastically different price than what you'll find at other sports betting sites, which have comparable juice but have a total of 26.5 points.
If you visit BetMGM and the Over 25.5 points (-110) has moved on you, close that app and open Caesars Sportsbook. They have this prop trading at Over 25.5 points (-111).
NBA best bets made 04/11/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Not intended for use in MA
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