Can the Boston Celtics fend off elimination one more time and send the Eastern Conference Finals back to Miami for Game 6? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Thursday's Heat-Celtics Game 5 using the best NBA odds.
Marcus Smart warned us that the Miami Heat should not allow the Boston Celtics to win a single game, and now we have the chance to see if that storyline will unfold. Can the Celtics become the first team ever to overcome an 0-3 series deficit in the NBA Playoffs?
With the conclusion of the Western Conference Finals and the entire focus shifting to the Eastern Conference Finals, it's more crucial than ever to leverage multiple of our best sports betting apps to help with you get the most value on your Heat vs. Celtics predictions. These player props are receiving unpreced ented attention, so it's absolutely vital not to overlook one of the most powerful tools as a bettor, which is line shopping.
If you think I'm joking, take a look at the exceptional price we discovered for a Jaylen Brown points prop for Thursday's Game 5.
Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Thursday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via FanDuel)
- Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (-8)
Thursday's NBA best bets
- Player prop: Jaylen Brown Over 22.5 points vs. Heat (-118 via FanDuel) ????
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Thursday's NBA player prop picks
Brown has been disappointing in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat; there's no denying that. He has struggled from beyond the arc and is averaging only 16.8 points per game in the series. Brown has also gone Under his point total in nine of his last 10 games. Initially, this trend might have made you inclined to bet on the Under, but let's examine how deceptive this betting trend can be.
Although Brown has gone Under the closing line in nine of his last 10 games, he has actually exceeded the total of 22.5 points in five of the last 10 games. This demonstrates that the adjustment to his total and the price are significant factors. Just by reducing his usual point total from 24.5 to 22.5, the trend has shifted.
Brown is projected to score 24.4 points on Thursday, which allows us to price the Over 22.5 points at -135. The drop from 24.5 points to 22.5 points greatly benefits this bet and our ability to extract some value from it.
If the projection were 24.4 points on a total of 24.5 points, it would not be favorable, as it would indicate a negative expected value for the Over. However, our advantage lies in capitalizing on the pricing adjustment for Brown.
The best price for Brown is available at FanDuel, where he's trading at -118 for Over 22.5 points. Most of our best sports betting sites concur that Brown's price should be closer to -125, while Pinnacle has the Over at -130. Therefore, seizing this advantageous price at FanDuel is crucial for maximizing your edge with your NBA picks for Thursday.
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA Finals MVP odds.
NBA best bets made 05/24/2023 at 8 p.m. ET.
Here are our best NBA betting sites:
- FanDuel: $1,000 No Sweat First Bet | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)