Who will score more points for the Toronto Raptors on Thursday, Pascal Siakam or Scottie Barnes? Jon Metler shares his best bets for Thursday's NBA slate of games using the best NBA odds.
There's no doubt that everyone is knee-deep in brackets and betting on March Madness, but not this guy. As long as there are NBA bets to be made, the show goes on.
This week's NBA best bets are 9-3 for +5.02 units. We're looking forward to continuing the momentum on Thursday as we wager on not one but two points props in the Toronto Raptors' matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.
Thursday's NBA schedule and odds
(odds via FanDuel)
- Denver Nuggets (-14.5) vs. Detroit Pistons
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Toronto Raptors (-6.5)
- Sacramento Kings vs. Brooklyn Nets (-2)
- Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-13.5)
- Orlando Magic vs. Phoenix Suns (-8)
Thursday's NBA best bets
- Player Points: Scottie Barnes Under 17.5 points vs. Thunder (-120 via DraftKings) ?????
- Player Points: Pascal Siakam Over 22.5 points vs. Thunder (-106 via FanDuel) ????
- Player Points: Mikal Bridges Over 25.5 points vs. Kings (-120 via BetMGM) ????
- Spread: Pacers +13 vs. Bucks (-108 via FanDuel) ????
Thursday's NBA player prop picks
I wouldn't su ggest betting on an Under unless it was a really good bet, and this bet has a lot to like when you look at the numbers. I anticipate that this prop will be down to 16.5 points by tipoff, so you'll need to have a sense of urgency when betting on this prop.
Barnes is projected to score 15.7 points against the Thunder, which is well below his total of 17.5 points. The market has already moved this prop down to 16.5 points at BetRivers, with the Under trading at -110. DraftKings is giving you an extra point on the Under and you'll only have to pay 10 cents more in vig, which increases your expected value.
Based on Barnes' projection of 15.7 points, we can price the Under 17.5 points at -180 rather than the -120 we see at DraftKings.
It's been seven games since Siakam has scored more than 22.5 points, which sounds like the perfect time for an Over bet. By ta king an Under on Barnes' points and an Over on Siakam's points, we have clearly established who we think will be the Raptors' top scorer on Thursday.
Siakam is projected to score 24.2 points on Thursday against the Thunder, which means the Over 22.5 points should trade at -130 instead of -106. Our projections indicate that this bet has a positive expected value of 6%.
I would've laughed if you had told me a month ago that Mikal Bridges Over 25.5 points at -120 was going to offer solid value, but here we are. With Brooklyn Bridges filling up the stat sheet, we're seeing an advantage with his prop on Thursday.
As Bridges is projected to score 27.4 points on Thursday against the Kings, the Over 25.5 points should trade at -135 instead of -120. There's also a lot of steam on the Over for Bridges on Thursday, with sportsbooks such as Poin tsBet, FanDuel, and BetRivers moving the prop to 26.5 points.
At DraftKings, the Over 25.5 is trading at -140, which is a significantly higher vig than the -120 we're seeing at BetMGM, further emphasizing why we should place this wager at BetMGM.
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.
NBA game picks
The Pacers are currently focused on tanking, but you simply cannot lose by 20 points to the Pistons. I expect the Pacers to bounce back here and the Bucks are always a wild card when it comes to resting their players. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucks sit some players out Thursday or reduce the minutes of their starters.
The Bucks are by far the superior team here, but 13 points is a lot of points, and I believe they should be trading closer to 11.5-point favorites. If we think th e Pacers should only be catching 11.5 points against the Bucks, it means that the +13 on FanDuel is worth -123 to us, but it's being traded at -108.
The Pacers are also available at BetMGM at +13.5 (-115), which represents the same value as our +13 (-108) bet at FanDuel. It's an identical price and both offer a positive expected value of 6%.
NBA best bets made 03/16/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Here are our best NBA betting sites:
- FanDuel: Get 10x Your First Bet up to $200 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM R eview
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Online Sportsbooks | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)