Rookie of the Year candidates punctuate Sunday's slate, and we're offering our top NBA player props and best bets based on the best NBA odds.
We've got a busy, eight-game slate in the Association on Sunday, and three games tip off before 4 p.m. ET.
Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic host the last-place Detroit Pistons in what should be a fantastic spot for the second-year forward.
Meanwhile, the shorthanded Toronto Raptors will be without All-Star Scottie Barnes as they host the Charlotte Hornets.
Finally, the two best rookies in the league highlight Sunday night's games.
Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs face the Indiana Pacers, and we close out the evening with a Western Conference showdown between the Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder, and Chet Holmgren will look to shine.
Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Sunday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sunday's NBA best bets
- Paolo Banchero Over 21.5 points vs. Pistons (-113 via FanDuel) ????
- Immanuel Quickley Over 6.5 assists vs. Hornets (-105 via bet365) ????
- Victor Wembanyama Under 41.5 PRA (-115 via bet365) ???
- Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 PRA (-110 via DraftKings) ????
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Sunday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks | Spread: Mavericks -8 | Total: 236
- Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics | Spread: Celtics -12 | Total: 229.5
- Los Angeles Clippers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves | Spread: Timberwolves -1 | Total: 220
- Detroit Pis tons vs. Orlando Magic | Spread: Magic -11 | Total: 218
- Charlotte Hornets vs. Toronto Raptors | Spread: Raptors -7.5 | Total: 222.5
- New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers | Spread: Cavaliers -6 | Total: 212.5
- Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs | Spread: Pacers -6.5 | Total: 243.5
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns | Spread: Thunder -4.5 | Total: 234
Sunday's NBA player props
Banchero returned from a two-game absence due to illness and posted 29 points, nine rebounds, and six assists against the Utah Jazz on Thursday. With two days off to rest and get healthier, he's in a prime position to blow past this points line against Detroit.
The Pistons allow the fourth-most points to opponents overall (121.1) and the third-most on the road (122.7). Banchero has averaged 19.7 points in three matchups with the Pistons this season, eclipsing 21.5 points once and scoring at least 20 points twice.
Banchero has been hot at home over his last three, averaging 29.3 points per game at Kia Center in that span.
This line is far too low for a player averaging 22.8 points per game this season. He's scored at least 22 points in 22 of 58 games, and I'd be willing to bet this one up to at least 22.5.
Some of our best sports betting sites offer this line at 20.5, but the juice is at least -125, which is why we'll stick with this friendly wager at FanDuel.
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Breakout third-year forward and first-time All-Star Scottie Barnes fractured his left hand Friday against the Golden State Warriors, and he's expected to miss multiple weeks. Barnes is averaging several statistical career highs, including his team-leading 6.1 assists.
Without Barnes on the floor, expect Quickley (5.8 assists per game since joining Toronto) to take on a more pronounced role as a facilitator. After Barnes and Quickley, no other player on the roster averages more than 3.9 assists per game.
In 25 games with the Raptors, Quickley has handed out at least seven assists in nine games, including each of his last two. Barnes left Friday's matchup against the Warriors early, and Quickley finished the game with 11 assists, tied for his most this season.
Charlotte allows the fourth-most assists per game overall (28.4) and on the road (28.8), making this prop even more enticing.
We could bet this one up to 8.5 at our best sports betting apps and still feel comfortable taking the Over.
Wembanyama has been otherworldly since returning from the All-Star break, averaging 22.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists across five contests. He's been an absolute stud on defense, too, averaging three steals and 4.8 blocks in that span.
However, this line doesn't include defensive stats. We're focused on PRA, and Wemby has eclipsed this line in just two of his last five. Despite his dominant run post-All-Star break, he's averaged just 39.6 PRA.
This is a lofty line, even for a player as talented as Wemby. He's posted at least 42 PRA in only nine of 54 games this season, or 16.6% of his appearances. That means he's failed to reach this mark in 83.4% of his games, but the -110 odds on the Over offered across our best sportsbooks give an implied probability of 52.4%.
That's why we're taking the Under at bet365. This is a mispriced line, even given how well the rookie has played this season and as of late.
The Suns are playing the second game of a back-to-back set on Sunday, and the team could be shorthanded. Jusuf Nurkic left Saturday's loss to the Houston Rockets before halftime with neck spasms and didn't return. Devin Booker injured his ankle with just over a minute to play in the fourth quarter. It wouldn't be surprising if both players sat out Sunday given the short turnaround.
While Wembanyama's PRA line is mispriced on the high end, Holmgren's is mispriced on the low end. In five games since the All-Star break, Holmgren has averaged 22.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, good for 35.4 PRA.
Holmgren has recorded at least 29 PRA in all five games, and he can extend that streak Sunday. Holmgren has hit this mark in 27 of 59 games this season, or 45.7%. The implied probability here is 52.4%, and we can feel good about taking the -110 odds at DraftKings.
NBA best bets made Sunday at 8:25 a.m. ET
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