We've got a six-game slate on Monday as the NBA week gets underway, and we're analyzing our favorite NBA player props and the best bets for Monday based on the best NBA odds.
The new week opens with a six-game slate in the Association. Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks travel east to face the shorthanded Philadelphia 76ers in a matchup that's sure to be anything but brotherly. Will Luka post another massive stat line?
Fresh off a career-best performance, Charlotte Hornets' rookie Brandon Miller faces the Los Angeles Lakers at home, where he'll look to stay hot. Cam Thomas and the Brooklyn Nets host the Golden State Warriors in a favorable matchup for the young scorer.
Our night concludes with James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers facing the Atlanta Hawks on the road, where Harden can exploit a quality matchup. We have four player props ready to gui de you through the action.
Here are our NBA player props and best bets for Monday (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's NBA best bets
- Luka Doncic Under 56.5 points + rebounds + assists vs. 76ers (+104 via FanDuel) ???
- Brandon Miller Over 22.5 points vs. Lakers (-125 via FanDuel) ????
- Cam Thomas Over 24.5 points vs. Warriors (-106 via FanDuel) ????
- James Harden Over 20.5 points vs. Hawks (-120 via FanDuel) ????
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Monday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Los Angeles Lakers vs. Charlotte Hornets | Spread: Lakers -10.5 | Total: 228
- Sacramento Kings vs. Cleveland Cavaliers | Spread: Cavaliers -5 | Total: 235
- Dallas Mavericks vs. Philadelphia 76ers | Spread: Mave ricks -1.5 | Total: 243
- Los Angeles Clippers vs. Atlanta Hawks | Spread: Clippers -2.5 | Total: 242
- Golden State Warriors vs. Brooklyn Nets | Spread: Nets -2 | Total: 237.5
- Toronto Raptors vs. New Orleans Pelicans | Spread: Pelicans -12 | Total: 231
Monday's NBA player props
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It might seem daunting to bet against Luka, given how productive he's been lately, but the numbers suggest we bet the Under tonight. Doncic is stuffing the stat sheet at an MVP level, but his most productive games have come with Kyrie Irving out of action. In 22 games with Irving in the lineup, Luka has averaged 48.7 PRAs compared to 58 in 19 games with Irving on the sidelines.
Irving is expected to play on Monday, which makes the Over far less attractive. Doncic has hit this prop in seven of 22 games played with Irving, but only two have come on the road. Doncic averages 54.2 PRAs at home compared to 51.6 on the road, and despite the favorable matchup, we'll take the Under. The Mavs are only favored by 1.5 points in this one, but that line should be higher. Philly is reeling without Joel Embiid, and the team is 1-5 straight up over its last six. With Irving and Doncic available, this could be a comfortable win for Dallas.
No rookie has been hotter than Miller lately, and his hot streak reached a new temperature Sunday as he dropped a career-high 35 points against the Pacers. Over his last 10 games, Miller has averaged 22.7 points and 3.1 three-pointers, scoring at least 23 in seven. LaMelo Ball has no timeline for return, and that will benefit Miller tonight. The rookie has averaged 17.2 points and 2.7 triples in 23 games without Ball, compared to 14.6 points and 1.8 triples in 19 games with Ball.
The Lakers allow the 13th most points (116.9) this season, but they've allowed the 10th most points (120.4) on the road. Miller should be able to stay hot from beyond the arc against a Los Angeles team that allows the most three-pointers to opponents (14.3). No Ball, a favorable matchup, and a blistering hot streak provide the perfect storm for Miller to cash this prop for us tonight.
Like Miller, Thomas has been on a heater of his own. Thomas has re-joined the starting lineup and has been with the first unit for four straight. He's scored at least 25 points in all four of those games and five straight overall. Over his last 11, Thomas has averaged 25.1 points and hit this line seven times.
Thomas has scored at least 40 points three times this season. He hit for 40 against the 76ers on Saturday and scored 41 against Golden State on December 16 in San Francisco. The Warriors have been poor defensively, allowing the ninth most po ints to opponents on the season. Over their last five, the Warriors have allowed at least 134 points three times. Thomas has averaged 22.8 points per game at home and 20.6 on the road, so he's in a great spot at Barclays tonight against an exploitable defense.
Like Golden State, Atlanta has been terrible on defense this season. The Hawks allow the second most points per game (123.4) on the season, including the second most points per game at home (124.8). Atlanta has been particularly vulnerable over the last week, allowing Luka Doncic to go for a historic 73 points (franchise record) and Steph Curry to score 60 (tying Kobe Bryant for most points by a player 35 years or older).
Harden has hit this mark in four of his last seven, and he's in a great spot against a team that's hemorrhaging points to opposing point guards. The Clippers are playing the second half of a back-to-back set on Monday, which means Paul will like ly see restricted minutes if he plays at all.
NBA best bets made Monday at 6:55 a.m. ET.
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Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)