How many points will Stephen Curry score against the Houston Rockets on Monday? Jon Metler shares his best bets for Monday's NBA slate of games using the best NBA odds.
In the NBA best bets last week, the Houston Rockets covered two spreads for us and won both games outright, but on Monday, we'll need them to play zero defense.
It's Monday, we're back, and I plan on winning you some units again this week after finishing 14-6 last week for +6.63 units.
Let's go!
Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.
Monday's NBA schedule and odds
(odds via FanDuel)
- Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers (-8.5)
- Indiana Pacers (-1.5) vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New York Knicks (-8.5)
- Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-2.5)
- Golden State Warriors (-11) vs. Houston Rockets
- Sacramento Kings (-5) vs. Utah Jazz
Monday's NBA best bets
- Player prop: Draymond Green Over 6.5 assists vs. Rockets (+110 via DraftKings) ?????
- Player prop: Rudy Gobert Over 10.5 rebounds vs. Knicks (+102 via BetRivers) ?????
- Player prop: Stephen Curry Over 28.5 points vs. Rockets (-115 via Caesars) ????
- Money line: Grizzlies vs. Mavericks (-129 via BetRivers) ????
Monday's NBA player prop picks
As soon as Draymond Green's assist prop became available at most sportsbooks around 11 a.m., it received immediate support for the Over and it's easy to understand why. The Golden State Warriors forward opened with a total of 6.5 trading at +114 via FanDuel, and this prop cannot be trading at a plus price.
As Green is expected to drop 7.1 dimes against the Rockets on Monday, we can price this prop at -125. There's a significant difference between a +110 and -125 as it represents a positive expected value of 17%.
I fully expect this prop to trade at minus money before tip-off, as Caesars and PointsBet have already adjusted their opening prices to -104 and -105. You should go hit the button right now if you're reading this article, because this +110 will not be available for long.
A Rudy Gobert r ebounding prop showing value is the same as Curry's points prop showing value, whenever the numbers are in your favor, you hit the button, and they're most definitely in your favor on Monday.
The Minnesota Timberwolves center is projected to grab 11.8 rebounds against the New York Knicks on Monday, which is well above his total of 10.5 rebounds at BetRivers. To earn a green checkmark, Gobert must grab 11 rebounds, but his projections are pushing 12 rebounds, and the prop is priced at +102. Using this projection, Gobert should trade at -145 for Over 10.5 rebounds, not +102.
Gobert's prop not only offers an edge, but no other sportsbook agrees with BetRivers' pricing on the Over. Caesars is trading the Over 10.5 rebounds at -111, while PointsBet is trading it at -115. This reinforces our evaluation of this prop, that we shouldn't be getting a plus price for it.
Speaking of Curry's points prop showing value to the Over, we've got that happening on Monday as well, along with Gobert's rebounds. As for the total of 28.5 points, the projections favor the Over, but I'm more in love with the price shopping opportunity Caesars has provided us with.
Curry has a total of 29.5 points, with the Over priced at -115 at BetMGM and at BetRivers it's even worse at -121 for Over 29.5 points. While Caesars is a full point less than most sportsbooks at 28.5 and their juice is also lower (-115) – win some!
Curry is projected to score 30.4 points against the Rockets on Monday, which means the Over 28.5 points should be trading at -135 rather than -115. Caesars appears to have fallen asleep on this one.
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.
NBA game picks
We're playing with fire here since Luka Doncic might return for the Dallas Mavericks on Monday night. Even though Doncic remains listed as questionable against the Memphis Grizzlies, the move from Grizzlies -1.5 to Grizzlies -3 at Circa Sports makes me more confident that he won't return on Monday.
The Grizzlies are projected to win by four points against the Mavericks on Monday, which means that their money line price should be trading at -157 instead of -129. I could've easily played the Grizzlies on the spread, however, with the money line trading at -140 and -145 at BetMGM and Caesars, this was too good to pass up.
NBA best bets made 3/20/2023 at 11 a.m. ET.
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- FanDuel: No Sweat First Bet Up to $1,000 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Cre dit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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- Best Online Sportsbooks | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)