Can Julius Randle deliver on his assist prop like he did in Game 1 and avoid the huge disappointment we received in Game 2? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler shares his top NBA player props and best bets for Friday's three-game NBA playoff schedule using the best NBA odds.
The pain of watching Julius Randle record more than 3.5 assists in Game 2 against the Cleveland Cavaliers was unbearable. It was such an awful experience that I decided to sign us up to do it again, just to be sure that it's not worth the time and energy.
Kidding aside, that prop was a huge disappointment on Tuesday. However, we can't solely judge our bets on wins and losses, only on our ability to beat the break-even percentage based on where we believe it should trade. As you read my breakdown of Randle's assist prop for Friday, you'll understan d why I placed a wager.
Here are our top NBA player props and best bets for Friday (odds via BetMGM, bet365, and FanDuel Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Friday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Boston Celtics (-5) vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks (-2)
- Denver Nuggets (-2.5) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Friday's NBA best bets
- Player prop: Trae Young Over 8.5 assists vs. Celtics (-104 via FanDuel) ????
- Player prop: Julius Randle Over 3.5 assists vs. Cavaliers (+130 via BetMGM) ?????
- Player prop: Caris LeVert Over 2.5 assists vs. Knicks (+100 via FanDuel) ?????
- Player prop: Derrick White vs. Hawks (-105 via bet365) ????
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Friday's NBA player prop picks
Trae Young has been under heavy scrutiny for his performance against the Boston Celtics this series. But as always, narrative and recency bias are wreaking havoc with betting odds for certain players in the NBA playoffs, allowing us to place an appealing wager.
Young has been given an 8.5 assist total, and the Over isn't juiced like crazy. He's projected to log 9.4 assists against the Celtics, so I've priced this prop at -145. The prop likely won't be trading at -104 as tipoff approaches, as Young's projections are too strong for it not to steam toward the Over.
I know it's the Celtics, but the odds account for that, and this bet is about attacking a certain price. It was quite common for Young to be given an assist total of 10.5 or 9.5 with heavy juice to the Over during the regular season. On those totals, 9.4 assists isn't a strong projection. But when it's now trading at 8.5, 9.4 assists is a projection that entices me to place a bet.
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I'm prepared to get hurt again with this prop since the numbers indicate I must bet on Randle. I backed him to finish with Over 3.5 assists in Game 2, but he only recorded one. The good news is he was so far off from going Over the total that we'll be able to wager on it at +130 for Game 3.
Randle is projected to register 4.2 assists against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday, so this prop should trade closer to -140 than +130. That's a significant difference between our price and BetMGM's offering. According to our projected price of -140, this bet comes with a positive expected value of 34%.
To maximize your edge, make sure you shop around for this prop at our best sportsbooks. PointsBet has already dropped it to +120 and FanDuel has adjusted to +124.
Don't wait until right before the game to place this bet. The Over on Randle's assist prop steamed quite a bit to the Over in Game 2, and the projections indicate that it should happen again.
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After Caris LeVert started the second half of Game 2 over Isaac Okoro, the Cavaliers went on to secure a 17-point win in Game 2 and LeVert finished with a plus-minus of 23. LeVert has now likely played his way into an expanded role in his team's series against the New York Knicks.
LeVert is projected to record 3.3 assists against the Knicks, which allows us to price the Over at -160 for 2.5. That's a rogue price you need to pounce on now.
When Pinnacle posted the Over for LeVert's assists, that book's total was 3.5 with the Over trading at +115. If Pinnacle thinks Over 3.5 assists should be priced at +115, then Over 2.5 assists should be offered at -200. However, FanDuel has it for +100.
According to our projections and Pinnacle's price, FanDuel is offering this prop nowhere near its correct odds. LeVert going Over 2.5 assists at +100 is easily a five-star bet.
The vibe on this bet is similar to our Under wager on Malik Monk's points total Thursday night, which earned a green check mark. Stephen A. Smith Derrick White has been red hot during the playoffs, and the narrative around him is drastically altering his odds.
White was given a total of 13.5 points prior to Game 1 against the Hawks. After soaring over the total in Games 1 and 2, the bar for White is now at 15.5 points. It's a significant adjustment after his total was so low at 13.5. Each point is worth so much more when the total is that low. It's not as if the move was from 32.5 to 34.5 points.
He's projected to score 14.4 points, which shows the importance of the shift. Based on that projection, we're looking to go Over the total of 13.5 points. But with it trading at 15.5, we're going Under. White can therefore be priced at -155 to go Under 15.5 points.
NBA best bets made 04/21/2023 at 5:30 a.m. ET.
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