Are DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Play-In Pat capable of leading the 10th-seeded Chicago Bulls into the NBA playoffs? Jon Metler shares his NBA best bets for Friday's two-game play-in tournament schedule using the best NBA odds.
You wouldn't even have to write this article if Diar DeRozan were skipping school once again to attend the play-in game in Miami on Friday. Just bet the Miami Heat players Under on made free throws.
We won't have the same drama at the free-throw line on Friday as we had in Toronto, but we will be relying on a DeRozan for a green checkmark.
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Friday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via FanDuel)
- Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat (-5.5)
- Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5)
Friday's NBA best bets
- Player prop: DeMar DeRozan Over 21.5 points (-125 via BetMGM) vs. Heat ????
- Player prop: Alex Caruso Over 2.5 assists (+145 via BetMGM) vs. Heat ?????
- Player prop: Patrick Beverley Over 2.5 assists (+106 via Caesars) vs. Heat ????
- Player prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 4.5 assists (-135 via bet365) vs. Timberwolves ?????
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Friday's NBA player prop picks
Say it with me: rogue price! DeRozan's trading at 22.5 points on FanDuel with the Over priced at -125, and he's even up to 23.5 points on BetRivers. When compared to the FanDuel Over, BetMGM is giving you a free point, since both lines are juiced to -125.
Not only is the rogue price sufficient reason to place a bet, but it also significantly increases our expected value. Based on DeRozan's projected score output of 24.1 points against the Heat on Friday, we can price DeRozan at -155 to go Over the total of 21.5 points.
Using our price of -155 for DeRozan to score more than 21.5 points, this bet has a positive expected value of 9%. It would be difficult to justify a bet on DeRozan without this rogue line since the Over 22.5 (-125) via FanDuel only has an expected value of less than 1%.
If you're someone who prefers betting on plus-money props, then this is the bet for you. The odds of Alex Caruso dropping more than 2.5 dimes are +145 at BetMGM, and, spoiler alert, he shouldn't be trading at plus money.
Caruso is projected to record 2.9 assists against the Heat on Friday, so we can price him at -115 to go Over the total of 2.5 assists. As compared to what Caruso is available at on the market at +145 via BetMGM, this price point is drastically different. The Over should be minus money, thus the five-star rating.
For this prop, you should shop at BetMGM to obtain the highest price at +145 to maximize your expected value. There are a number of sportsbooks that aren't trying to lose as much money on this prop. PointsBet and BetRivers trade it at shorter prices of +125 and +120, respectively.
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Patrick Beverley opened with a total of 2.5 assists at Pinnacle, with the Over priced at +125. As of Friday morning, Beverley is currently trading at -112 to go Over the 2.5 assists at Pinnacle, which indicates some serious steam.
Beverley is steaming hard at Pinnacle, and it's worth chasing while we can. If you're chasing steam, then you should do so only if you're able to catch a book that has been slow to keep up with it (Caesars +106) and if you can identify the point where the steam has pushed the odds to the point where they're no longer playable.
Considering that Beverley is projected to drop 3.1 assists against the Heat, we can price this prop at -130 to go Over the total of 2.5 assists. Although we missed the opening number of +125 at Pinnacle, we still have plenty of room for an edge with our break-even percentage since we believe Beverley should be trading at -130.
The points prop for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on Friday will garner a lot of attention, especially since it trades at such a high total of 33.5, but it's his assists prop that offers the most value.
Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 5.9 assists against the Minnesota Timberwolves, which is well above his total of 4.5 assists. Gilgeous-Alexander can be priced at -215 to go over the total of 4.5 assists based on this projection, but bet365 offers it at -135.
Don't look at this prop and say it's -135 – which is heavy juice – so I'll pass. Immediately, no! We have this bet priced at -215 to go Over the total of 4.5 assists, which means this bet has a positive expected value of 19%.
If you're reading this during your breakfast or lunch break, please don't wait until after work to make this bet. Gilgeous-Alexander's assist prop is already trading at -154 on FanDuel and -162 at BetRivers, probably because it should be at -215.
NBA best bets made 04/14/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET.
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