Is Anthony Davis going over or under his points total against his former team the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday? Jon Metler shares his best bets for Tuesday's NBA slate of games using the best NBA odds.
Even though D'Angelo Russell had a phenomenal game for the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday night, they still fell short against the New York Knicks. The Lakers need wins to remain in the playoff race, and they will rely heavily on Davis against his former team, the Pelicans.
What does the math suggest regarding Davis' points prop in a revenge spot against his former team on the road?
Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.
Tuesday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5) vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Detroit Pistons vs. Washington Wizards (-11.5)
- Denver Nuggets vs. Toronto Raptors (-1)
- Orlando Magic (-5.5) vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans Pelicans (-1)
- Brooklyn Nets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)
- New York Knicks (-2.5) vs. Portland Trail Blazers
- Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday's NBA best bets
- Spread: Wizards -11.5 vs. Pistons (-110 via FanDuel) ????
- Total: Magic-Spurs Under 234 (-110 via DraftKings) ????
- Player Prop: Cameron Johnson Over 16.5 points vs. Thunder (-105 via BetMGM) ????
- Player Prop: Anthony Davis Ove r 26.5 points (-120 via BetMGM) ????
NBA top picks
The Detroit Pistons are coming off of a dominant victory against the Indiana Pacers on Monday and the Washington Wizards just needed a buzzer beater to beat the Pistons a little over a week ago – so obviously we're going to back the Wizards to win by more than 11.5 points.
As the Wizards are projected to defeat the Pistons by 14.5 points, we should see this spread rise throughout the day. Aside from the projections, the narrative of the Pistons dealing with a depleted roster, overtly tanking, and playing in a back-to-back set that involves travel should also cause the market to shift this line towards the Wizards.
This bet has a positive expected value of 15% based upon our projection of the Wizards winning by 14.5 points, as we think the Wizards should be trading closer to -150 than -110 on an 11.5-point spread.
The trends crowd will be punching air with this wager since the Orlando Magic have not had a game go under 240 points in their last four contests. This is a fun statistic, but for me, trends play no role in determining what my bets will be for the day.
There's a lot of variation in the betting market with the lines they have posted for this game, but one trend is evident if you watch the odds board: the game total is steaming toward the Under. Likewise, the projections support this idea as this game is projected to end with 229.5 points, 4.5 points below the posted total at DraftKings.
Right now, DraftKings offers the best price on the Under at 234 (-110). BetMGM offers a higher total at 234.5, but the Under is trading at -115. Adding five cents of vig to gain a half point on a total of 234 is not worth it.
Since I'm a North Carolina Tar Heels fan, it only seems right to place a prop bet on Cameron Johnson in order to wash away my disappointment over the Tar Heels' failure to qualify for March Madness.
I say that as though this bet isn't fully supported by math, and that actually has no bearing on my decision to place this wager. Johnson is projected to score 18.3 points against the Thunder on Tuesday, which means the Over 16.5 points should be trading closer to -140 than -105.
There's also a bit of a rogue price here as PointsBet (-115) and Caesars (-114) have the Over 16.5 points juiced much higher than BetMGM's. It hasn't been posted yet, but based on this projection, I would consider Johnson for 20-plus points on FanDuel. If the price is higher than +150, it's worth betting on.
The most important part for me when it com es to betting is the math – but you have to appreciate when the numbers are supported by a narrative that is difficult to quantify. Having Davis play against a depleted Pelicans roster in New Orleans, when the Lakers need him to put the team on his back, falls into this category.
Davis is projected to score 28.9 points against the Pelicans on Tuesday, so we can price the Over 26.5 points at -135, yet we're able to snag a -120 at BetMGM. BetRivers, FanDuel, and PointsBet have all increased Davis' points prop to 27.5.
BetRivers has the lowest juice on the Over 27.5 at -106, but based on our projection of 28.9 points, BetMGM's line of Over 26.5 (-120) results in a positive expected value of 6%, whereas the BetRivers line decreases our expected value to 2.5%.
NBA best bets made 03/14/2023 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
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