Post-deadline rosters lead to value on Saturday's nine-game slate. Read on for our top NBA picks for Saturday based on the best NBA odds.
Can the Orlando Magic cover or even win as small home underdogs against the Miami Heat?
Elsewhere, the San Antonio Spurs will look to play competitively after a heartbreaking Friday loss when they travel for a fourth straight road game to face the Atlanta Hawks. There are also a couple of juicy point totals, including the Philadelphia 76ers-Brooklyn Nets matchup and the Dallas Mavericks-Sacramento Kings rematch.
Here are our NBA best bets for Saturday (odds via BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook, and Caesars Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Sat urday's NBA schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Philadelphia 76ers (-1) at Brooklyn Nets
- Denver Nuggets (-8.5) vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Miami Heat (-1.5) at Orlando Magic
- Indiana Pacers (+5.5) at Washington Wizards
- San Antonio Spurs (+11.5) at Atlanta Hawks
- Utah Jazz (+5) at New York Knicks
- Chicago Bulls (+5) at Cleveland Cavaliers
- Los Angeles Lakers (+3.5) at Golden State Warriors
- Dallas Mavericks (+2) at Sacramento Kings
Saturday's NBA best bets
- Upset: Magic ML vs. Heat (+110 via BetMGM) ???
- Spread: Spurs +13 vs. Hawks (-110 via PointsBet) ????
- Total: 76ers-Nets Over 226.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ????
- Total: Mavericks-Kings Over 235.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ???
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.
NBA top picks for Saturday
The Battle of Florida! It doesn't sound quite as appealing as the Battle of Los Angeles, does it?
Regardless, we're taking the Magic to upset the Heat as small home favorites. Orlando has won and covered in three of its last four games. The team lost to Miami earlier in the season but still covered. The Magic are 15-8 against the spread as the home 'dog in 2022-23, which is the ninth-best mark in the Association. The team is also 12-11 straight up as a home underdog. Orlando is one of only seven squads with a record above .500 in that situation.
Meanwhile, the Heat are 11-16 straight up on the road and 7-7 as the road favorite. The team is just 5-8-1 ATS as a road favorite and 11-15-1 on the road. Miami has won two straight, but it's 0-4 ATS in its last four and 1-6 over its last seven.
You coul d bet the spread here, but the line is so close that taking Orlando straight up makes the most sense from a value standpoint. Take the best plus-money odds you can find at BetMGM.
This line opened at Spurs +11.5 before quickly rising to +13. Let's smash this mispriced spread.
The Spurs traded big man Jakob Poeltl on Wednesday night and veteran scorer Josh Richardson on Thursday. Key players remained out for San Antonio on Friday, but the team looked good with new addition Devonte' Graham (most points ever in a Spurs debut), and Zach Collins starting at center. The Spurs have now lost 11 straight while failing to cover in 10 consecutive games. However, they suffered a bad break Friday against the Pistons while walking away with a seven-point double-overtime defeat as six-point 'dogs.
The Hawks have covered in four of their last six, but this line is far too lofty to feel confid ent in them covering again. Atlanta is 0-2 as a double-digit favorite at home, 3-4 as a favorite of seven points or higher at State Farm Arena, and just 2-7 as a seven-plus-point favorite overall.
The Spurs are 6-4 as double-digit underdogs on the road. Take new-look San Antonio to cover with confidence.
The 76ers hit the Over at the NBA's third-highest percentage, so we'll turn our attention to that result on Saturday when they head to Barclays Center to face the Nets. Philly is 32-22 overall and 11-4 as the road favorite. The Over has hit just twice over the team's last six games, but these clubs combined for 270 points when Philadelphia and Brooklyn met on Jan. 25.
The Nets are 7-1-1 over their last nine contests and 2-0 in two prior matchups with the 76ers. Brooklyn is 5-3 as the home 'dog and 11-9-1 as the underdog overall. The team lost Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant over the last week, but Brooklyn has stockpiled a deep roster of guards and wings who can put the ball in the basket.
This should be an easy Over at such a modest point total.
The Mavericks and Kings squared off Friday night. Unfortunately for fans waiting on Luka Donic to make his first appearance alongside Kyrie Irving, the four-time All-Star was ruled out late in the day. It's unclear if he'll be back on Saturday, but Donic is trending in the right direction.
The teams combined for 236 points Friday, and we're banking on the Mavs and Kings doing that or more again. Dallas is 7-2 to the Over without rest, and Sacramento is 5-3 in the same situation. The Kings are 14-7 as the home favorite, while Dallas is 10-6 as the road 'dog. The Over has hit during four straight Kings games, and in three of the Mavericks' last four.
Doncic's ret urn should mean more scoring for Dallas, but take the Over even if he sits.
NBA best bets made 2/11/2023 at 7:55 a.m. ET.
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