Will the Boston Celtics steamroll the Houston Rockets on Monday? Jon Metler shares his best bets for Monday's NBA slate of games using the best NBA odds.
The Celtics are by far the superior team over the Rockets, so we should be able to win easily if we back them on the spread – but not so fast! The numbers paint a very different picture for the Celtics-Rockets game, as I explain in Monday's edition of our NBA best bets.
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Monday's NBA schedule and odds
(odds via FanDuel)
- Indiana Pacers (-3.5) vs. Detroit Pistons
- Memphis Grizzles (-1.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat (-7.5)
- Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Atlanta Hawks (-5)
- Boston Celtics (-12) vs. Houston Rockets
- Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors (-4.5)
- Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5) vs. Sacramento Kings
Monday's NBA best bets
- Spread: Rockets +13 vs. Celtics (-110 via Caesars) ???
- Total: Suns-Warriors Under 236.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ????
- Player Prop: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 7.5 rebounds vs. Mavericks (-111 via FanDuel) ????
- Player Prop: Killian Hayes Under 14.5 points vs. Pacers (-125 via BetMGM) ????
The number of people who woke up Monday morning excited to bet on the last-place Rockets against one of the top teams in the NBA in the Celtics is probably quite low. It might take a little convincing, but once you review the numbers, there's a lot to like here. While the Rockets might be awful, this is the NBA. Thirteen points is a lot of points, and we aren't getting this number from just any sportsbook. Caesars is the only sportsbook offering the Rockets at +13 at the moment, while most other sportsbooks offer the Rockets at +12. So thank you, Caesars, I will gladly take the extra point in this spot – especially since the projections have the Celtics winning by 11.5 points. With this projection, a spread of Rockets +13 offers value in comparison to Rockets +12. A spread of Rockets +13 (-110) via Caesars provides us with a positive expected value of 5%, while we would have a negative expected value of 1% if we bet the Rockets +12 (-110) at BetRivers. We must take advantage of this total before it falls any further. After opening at 239.5, this bet is steaming hard to the Under, dropping three points to 236.5. Only BetMGM is hanging a 236.5 total on the game, as all other sportsbooks have dropped to 236 and a move to 235.5 appears imminent. Why is this total attracting so much attention? Based on the projections, the Suns-Warriors game is expected to land on 231 points, well below the opening total of 239.5. Though we technically missed the best number, the projection still comes in 5.5 points under the total of 236.5 at BetMGM, making it well worth a bet. In his matchup with the Dallas Mavericks on Monday, Jackson Jr. is projected to go over both his points and r ebounding totals, but I'm much more interested in betting the Over on his boards. With Jackson projected to grab 8.2 rebounds against the Mavericks, the Over 7.5 should be trading at -125 instead of -111. You're also receiving a nice price by betting on this prop at FanDuel as the Over 7.5 is only juiced to -111. At DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars, the Over 7.5 is trading at -120, which is much closer to where I believe it should be trading. It's unlikely that anyone can out-tank the Pistons at this point, and Hayes scored 17 points and dropped 13 assists on Saturday against the Indiana Pacers – the same opponent he'll face on Monday. After Hayes' excellent performance against the Pacers on Saturday, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the Pistons dial back his minutes because they can't risk winning. Hayes is only projected to score 1 2.8 points against the Pacers, which is well below the total of 14.5 points, and allows us to price this prop at -175. As you can find a total of 13.5 at FanDuel and PointsBet and varying juices on the Under 14.5 at other sportsbooks, there's no consensus on what this prop should trade at. Our projections indicate that betting Under 14.5 (-125) via BetMGM adds 3.9% to our edge over betting Under 13.5 (-106) on FanDuel. NBA best bets made 03/13/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET. (21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)Here are our best NBA betting sites:
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