For Friday's 10-game slate in the NBA, we have highlighted a road underdog and pair of player props to target for our best bets. Read on for NBA picks and predictions.
We have a loaded 10-game slate of NBA action set for tonight, including a nationally-televised game between the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets, a rematch between the Memphis Grizzlies and Denver Nuggets on ESPN, and a second look at a Los Angeles Clippers vs. Sacramento Kings matchup that nearly set the scoring record when they played a few days ago.
Play-in spots are on the line and seeding is being fought for. While there is blowout potential and a lot to choose from, we've found some spots where there is value for your bankroll.
Here are our NBA best bets for Friday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.
Friday's NBA schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Orlando Magic (-4) vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Brooklyn Nets (+11) vs. Boston Celtics
- Portland Trail Blazers (+7) vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Phoenix Suns (-4) vs. Chicago Bulls
- New York Knicks (-2.5) vs. Miami Heat (+2.5)
- Utah Jazz (+1) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Memphis Grizzlies (+5) vs. Denver Nuggets
- New Orleans Pelicans (+4) vs. Golden State Warriors
- Los Angeles Clippers (+6) vs. Sacramento Kings
- Minnesota Timberwolves (+1.5) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Friday's NBA best bets
- Spread: Pelicans +4.5 vs. Warriors (-110 via DraftKings) ????
- Total: Nets-Celtics Under 227.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ??
- Player prop: Terry Rozier first quarter Under 1.5 assists (+115 via DraftKings) ????
- Player prop: Anthony Davis leading scorer (-105 via DraftKings) ????
Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.
NBA top picks
Both teams are dealing with significant injuries. The Pelicans will be without Zion Williamson, Larry Nance Jr., Josh Richardson, and Jose Alvarado while listing Jonas Valanciunas as doubtful. The Warriors will be without Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins. The compromised roster of the Pelicans should be able to keep up with the red-hot Warriors though.
The Warriors have won four straight on their current homestand and have covered the spread in all four games, including a win as an underdog on Thursday against the Clippers despite shooting just 30.4% from deep. This season, they are 14-17-1 ATS following a win and a mediocre 8-8 AT S when they have the rest disadvantage. Without the versatile defense of Wiggins, it will be difficult to keep up with the high volume of Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum, who have both dropped multiple 30-point games in their career against Steve Kerr's defense.
On the offensive end, New Orleans might be a bit handicapped without Williamson but they should still regress positively. They have lost four of their last five games thanks to an average of just 106.4 points per game on an abysmal 29.7% from deep. Since Wiggins has been absent due to a personal leave, the Warriors have been a below average 3-point defense and that could be their undoing. We have to grab the points with the Pelicans, who should be closer to a pick 'em on Friday.
A staggering 88% of the public is currently backing the Over in this primetime game, likely due to the defense-only Ben Simmons being out for the Nets and the offensive juggernaut Celtics being fully healthy. However, regression is the reason this line hasn't moved up.
The Nets have struggled to string together wins with their post-deadline roster, but shooting the ball has not been the primary issue. They have shot 36.3% on high volume from deep over their last six games. Meanwhile, the Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA thanks to generation of high shot quality so their offensive explosions are more sustainable than you might think, but 41.6% from long range over the last month is a bit much. We will bet against that level of shooting to continue.
LaMelo Ball, one of the best playmakers in the NBA, is out on Friday, which will increase the usage for Terry Rozier, who will slide over to the point guard position. However, in these situations, he has generally become focused on scoring, increasing his shot volume and staying Under this number in 14 of his 20 games without Ball .
In Charlotte, his tendencies get even more skewed towards chucking shots, attempting 5.1 field goals per first quarter and staying Under 1.5 assists in nine of his 11 home first quarters without Ball.
Rozier's matchup is a tough one as well. Over their last 15 games, the Magic have allowed the 10th-fewest assists per game to point guards. Read the relatively low Vegas total and fade offense. If you don't have first quarter markets on your book, you could pivot to the full game for Rozier (Under 6.5 assists), but you will have to pay more juice for that, which is why I prefer the plus-money value of the first quarter prop.
This season, Anthony Davis has played in 10 games without LeBron James as will be the case on Friday. He has led the Lakers in scoring in seven of those 10 games and led the game in scoring in five of them. We are getting a fantastic price on Davis in a beaut y of a matchup, particularly on DraftKings since Anthony Edwards is being considered the favorite even though Davis is rightfully the chalk pick on other books.
This is a close spread matchup (near-pick-'em), which means Vegas expects the starters to likely take four quarters to decide a winner. Since the injury to Karl-Anthony Towns, Edwards has led the team in scoring in 28 of his 43 games and the only other player on the roster to even come close to this frequency is D'Angelo Russell, who is now rostered by the Lakers and will be out on Friday. That means Edwards is the clear pick for Minnesota to score enough to lead the game. However, with him seeing the elite on-ball pressure of Jarred Vanderbilt, one of the most versatile defenders in the NBA, it could be an off night for him despite the volume. Davis, on the other hand, gets a softer matchup going up against Rudy Gobert.
Since the All-Star break, the Tim berwolves are a bottom 10 mid-range defense and they are a bottom five restricted area defense since early February. Davis feasts in these matchups and as a Laker, he averages 33.5 points per 36 minutes against Gobert, despite sharing the floor with LeBron in all of those games. Minnesota's best on-ball defender is Jaden McDaniels, but he will likely take on the responsibilities of rotating around the perimeter and clamping up Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley, and Vanderbilt since he is not big enough to handle Davis in the post.
If you don't have this market available on your book, both Davis' points and rebounds are good looks as well but I prefer the top scorer market due to the relatively low Vegas total projection. I don't believe he needs to clear his 27.5 points line to be the leading scorer on Friday.
NBA best bets made 03/03/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
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