NBA odds are one of the most popular betting options available at the BetMGM online sportsbook. But even among those who don't bet very often, the NBA Most Valuable Player debate is a popular and deeply accessible topic of conversation.'
Even casual observers of American professional basketball usually have opinions. Who's overrated? Who's up-and-coming? Who's won too many, or too few?
The NBA MVP odds market offers a way to formalize your opinions and – with a little bit of luck – maybe even profit from them.
Here, I break down the full market, including many of the most popular names and candidates for the upcoming 2024-25 season.
NBA MVP Odds 2024-25
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| Player | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | +375 | +500 |
| Nikola Jokic | +375 | +400 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +550 | +650 |
| Joel Embiid | +650 | +1000 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +700 | +700 |
| Anthony Edwards | +1600 | +1200 |
| Victor Wembanyama | +2000 | +1600 |
| Jayson Tatum | +2500 | +1100 |
| Jalen Brunson | +3000 | +2000 |
| Ja Morant | +5000 | +4000 |
| Stephen Curry | +6600 | +1800 |
| Kawhi Leonard | +6600 | +4000 |
| Kevin Durant | +8000 | +1800 |
| Devin Booker | +10000 | +2000 |
| D onovan Mitchell | +10000 | +3000 |
| Zion Williamson | +10000 | +5000 |
| LeBron James | +15000 | +2500 |
Based on the current futures market, Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic each have an implied 21.1% chance to win NBA MVP in 2025.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+550, 15.4%) is the next most likely MVP, followed by Joel Embiid (+650, 13.3%).'
Luka Doncic, the Mavericks superstar, is currently +375 to win NBA MVP.
Over the last three seasons, Doncic has led the Mavericks to one Western Conference finals and one NBA Finals. He's one of the most cold-blooded scorers in the league, and his team signed Klay Thompson to aid with floor spacing this offseason.
It's no wonder that Doncic is a popular offering in the MVP market. The 2024-25 cycle is young, but so far he's attracted about 15% of all tickets at BetMGM. His ticket count and overall market handle trail only one other player.
Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets center, is currently +375 to win NBA MVP.
There's a reason bettors are paying top dollar for a Jokic ticket. Jokic is the reigning MVP who has now won the award three times in the last four seasons.'
That said, there are real reasons to be concerned about where Jokic's MVP stock goes from here. Voter fatigue seems likely to set in soon, and the Nuggets got worse this offseason while several other key contenders in the West stayed the same or got better.'
Perhaps Jokic will win a fourth MVP in 2025. Regardless of whether he does or doesn't, though, it seems like the market will eventually prompt longer odds on him in the coming months. So far, only 6.5% of tickets are interested in the reigning MVP, which suggests a coming adjustment for a co-favorite.''
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder point guard, is currently +550 to win NBA MVP.
SGA was one of the big winners of the 2024 NBA playoffs. His team may have been eliminated in the second round by Dallas, but the largely untested point guard got to prove that his game still has real legs when the calendar flips to April and May.
That marked SGA as a potential MVP candidate for years to come, which is why he's the most popular ticket at the BetMGM online sportsbook this offseason. So far, 18.5% of all MVP tickets are on Gilgeous-Alexander, representing more than 30% of all money bet in the market.
SGA may not be the favorite as far as odds are concerned, but he's clearly the most popular choice among bettors. He's also the No. 1 market liability for BetMGM in the early going.'
Joel Embiid, the 76ers center, is currently +650 to win NBA MVP.
The best case for a second Embiid MVP might be Philadelphia's offseason. Let's think about the 2024-25 regular season for a moment. The Celtics, who are the reigning NBA champions, just played into June. Kristaps Porzingis needs surgery and won't be available for the opening portion of the season.
With the 76ers lining up a true Big Three in Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia is one of two teams (alongside New York) that could push hard for the No. 1 seed in the East.'
If the 76ers' new roster construction works, and they're competing for top playoff seeds, there's little doubt a Philadelphia player would receive MVP buzz. But would it be Embiid? Or could it be Maxey or Paul? The Sixers MVP theory is strong, but it's not clear which specific player would benefit.'
Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks superstar, is currently +375 to win NBA MVP.
Besides Embiid and Jokic, Giannis is the only other player to have won an NBA MVP in the last seven years. But for many bettors, the Bucks feel like they may be past their contention expiration date with this current Giannis run.'
Since 2018-21, when Giannis won one title and two MVPs, Milwaukee has fired two different coaches. They've shipped out most of their top defensive players and rebuilt the roster around Giannis and Damian Lillard. The latter is 34. Khris Middleton, the other major remaining contributor, will be 33 for this upcoming season.
Giannis will turn 30 this year, so he's still got plenty of good basketball left in him. But the Bucks star may also be slightly more injury-prone than he was five years ago, which explains Milwaukee's first-round playoff exits of the last two seasons.'