Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat are gearing up to face Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in what promises to be an exciting showdown. Who will come out on top and claim the coveted Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy as the 2022-2023 NBA Champions? Let's dive into the details as we closely analyze the NBA Finals and explore a betting angle that I find particularly appealing at our best NBA betting sites.
The NBA Finals have arrived, and to the surprise of most, the Denver Nuggets will square off against the Miami Heat. This is a matchup that may have reminded you of the days when Carmelo Anthony and Dwyane Wade were leading their respective teams. However, Jimmy Butler vs. Nikola Jokic is expected to provide just as much excitement and intensity.
The Heat will enter the series as significant underdogs for the third time in these NBA Playoffs. Can they pull off yet another remarkable upset and claim an NBA Finals victory?
Let's take a closer look at the series preview for the NBA Finals, and I'll also share a betting angle that I believe could be advantageous at some of our best sports betting apps for this upcoming series.
NBA Finals odds 2023
(odds updated May 30)
| Team | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | BetRivers | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuggets | -400 | -480 ?? | -400 | -385 | -380 ?? |
| Heat | +310 | +330 ?? | +300 | +300 | +300 |
Check out our NBA best bets and our NBA Finals MVP odds.
NBA Finals odds movement
Immediately after the conclusion of Game 7 between the Heat and the Celtics, you began to notice the Nuggets opening as -350 favorites to win the NBA Finals over the Heat, and they have maintained their momentum ever since.
The Nuggets have now steamed to -480 favorites at FanDuel, which is quite similar to the price at which the Celtics were trading prior to their series against the Heat, as the Celtics were favored by five dollars.
NBA Finals series price
From a human perspective, based on what I've seen while watching the Heat and Nuggets in the NBA Playoffs, it seems like the Nuggets should have an easy time defeating the Heat in the NBA Finals. Althoug h the Heat have made it this far, they appear to be running out of gas, and Bam Adebayo has been struggling lately.
The Denver Nuggets have Nikola Jokic, who is arguably the best player in the world, along with superstar Jamal Murray, and they possess depth. The Nuggets are well-rested, have a strong defense, and plenty of offensive firepower. It's a tough task for any coach to devise a game plan to stop the Nuggets' pick-and-roll with Murray and Jokic.
While I personally believe the Nuggets will win, it doesn't necessarily mean their odds to win the NBA Finals are favorable for betting at our best NBA betting sites. The prevailing narrative of the Nuggets winning, possibly with ease, is reflected in the opening lines and subsequent line movement.
Projections indicate that the Nuggets will win the series 75.4% of the time (-306), while the Heat have a 24.6% chance (+306) of winning. This means that the opening odds for the Heat to win the series, particularly with a +330 available at FanDuel, offer more favorable pricing.
Personally, the probability gap isn't significant enough to convince me to place a bet on the Heat in the NBA Finals. Nevertheless, it's worth noting that there may be slightly better value on the Heat heading into Game 1.
Betting angle for NBA Finals
| Player | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | BetRivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | -360 ?? | -320 ?? | -350 | -335 |
If you're enthusiastic about backing the Nuggets to win this series, much like myself, here's the strategy I'll be employing to maximize the potential value of a Nuggets NBA Finals victory, and it revolves around Jokic. One important factor to consider is that Jokic has never reached the NBA Finals before, which eliminates any concerns about voter fatigue, and he consistently stuffs the stat sheet on the court.
In my opinion, the difference in probability between the Nuggets winning the NBA Finals and Jokic winning the NBA Finals MVP should be borderline non-existent. It's a close call, but it doesn't align precisely with how the market prices it at our best sports betting apps. This means that betting on Jokic to win the MVP will offer a slightly more favorable price compared to simply wagering on the Nuggets to win the NBA Finals.
The problem lies in our projected price for the Nuggets, which is at -306, preventing us from gaining a definite advantage or placing a bet at the moment. Nevertheless, we are significantly closer in this market (-320) than in the NBA Finals futures odds, where the best price available for the Nuggets is -380.
Another interesting point to consider is the disparity between FanDuel's NBA Finals MVP and NBA Finals odds. They initially set the Nuggets at -350 after Game 7, but the odds have since been steamed to -480 for the Nuggets to win the NBA Finals. On the other hand, the opening price for Jokic to win the NBA Finals MVP was -320, which was released at the same time as the -350 for the Nuggets. It's worth noting how they've adjusted the odds in one market but not the other, so keep that in mind as well.
NBA Finals schedule
| Date | Time | TV |
|---|---|---|
| June 1 | 8:30 pm ET | ABC |
| June 4 | 8 pm ET | ABC |
| June 7 | 8:30 pm ET | ABC |
| June 9 | 8:30 pm ET | ABC |
| June 12* | 8:30 pm ET | ABC |
| June 15* | 8:30 pm ET | ABC |
| June 18* | 8 pm ET | ABC |
*If necessary
Several of our best sportsbooks have already released 2023-24 NBA Finals odds now that we're on to the final round of this year's postseason.
Recent NBA champions
Odds from SportsOddsHistory.com.
| Team | Year | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 2022 | +1200 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 2021 | +550 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 2020 | +1800 |
| Toronto Raptors | 2019 | +6600 |
| Golden State Warriors | 2018 | -168 |
| Golden State Warriors | 2017 | +215 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 2016 | +300 |
| Golden State Warriors | 2015 | +2500 |
| San Antonio Spurs | 2014 | +100 |
| Miami Heat | 2013 | +250 |
NBA Finals FAQs
The Warriors defeated the Celtics in six games during the 2022 NBA Finals, securing their fourth crown since 2015.
This year's final series will begin on June 1, with Game 7 (if necessary) scheduled for June 18. Game 4 is the earliest the series could be decided, which is slated for June 9.
The location of the NBA Finals won't be determined until there are representatives from each conference. One team will host up to four games, while the other will get up to three contests.
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Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)