The 2024 NBA Draft begins Wednesday with the first round, and we're making our NBA Draft predictions and expert picks based on the best NBA odds.
The 2024 NBA Draft may very well be one of the worst in league history, but they said the same thing about the 2013 draft that produced Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert.
So, when the first round begins Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN) from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y., there will likely be a few names among the NBA draft odds that become All-Stars down the line.
Some teams will leave New York feeling better about their NBA championship odds thanks to their additions, while others may wants a do-over. At the end of the day, it's shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable drafts in recent memory.
NBA draft expert picks
Pick confidence based on a 1 -to-5-star scale; odds via our best NBA betting sites.
- Stephon Castle drafted Over 5.5 (+120 via BetMGM) ???
- Devin Carter to be drafted top 10 (-140 via FanDuel) ?????
- Dalton Knecht to be drafted top five (+450 via BetMGM) ??
- Cody Williams drafted Under 8.5 (-115 via DraftKings) ????
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NBA draft player props
No player in this draft class better exemplifies its unpredictability than Castle. The combo guard out of UConn was integral to the Huskies' NCAA Tournament run and was a five-star recruit that blossomed by the end of the season.
But there are concerns about where he fits in at the next level as a guard that shot just 26.7% from behind the arc. It's also been made clear he wants to play point guard in the NBA after turning down workouts with teams that have proven lead guards.
It seems unlikely Castle goes top three, and the Detroit Pistons, who pick fifth, have an established point guard. That leaves only the San Antonio Spurs, whom I think would take Reed Sheppard if he's there or trade for a veteran guard. These odds imply a 45.45% win probability with a $10 bet paying out $22.
Best odds: +120 via BetMGM
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My guess for who will become your favorite player's favorite player from this draft is Carter. The Big East Player of the Year this past season didn't get quite the same level of love as some of the other top players in the country because Providence missed the NCAA Tournament.
However, he's getting the attention he deserves now thanks to his dominance at the NBA Draft Combine. He broke the combine record with a 2.87 three-quarter sprint and led both vertical jumps. Not only did he average 19.7 PPG and shoot 37.7% from three for the Friars, but he was also a lockdown defender.
Normally I wouldn't love how short these odds are, but they're an outlier price with this prop sitting around -180 at our other best books. Those odds imply a 64.29% win probability, but ours pay a $7.14 profit on a $10 bet.
Best odds: -140 via FanDuel
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If you're not into how short those odds are on Carter, do I have a bet for you. This is a swing for the fences with the Pistons in mind. Tennessee's Dalton Knecht was arguably the most prolific scorer in college basketball last season putting up 21.7 PPG and shooting 39.7% from three.
While we know older prospects do get dinged – Knecht is already 23 – the instant offense he could provide as a two-guard will certainly have teams infatuated. Most draftniks think he's going top 10, but could the Pistons get bold at five? Or would someone move up for him?
It's worth noting that Knecht was unstoppable in two NCAA Tournament games on the Pistons' home court at Little Caesars Arena. He dropped 26 against Creighton and 37 against Purdue there. These odds only imply an 18.18% win probability, but a $10 winning bet pays a $45 profit.
Best odds: +450 via BetMGM
Much like Carter, Cody Williams is another player who is easy to gain appreciation for the more you watch him. He's a 3-and-D rockstar waiting to happen with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and a smooth shooting stroke, hitting 41.5% of his threes as a freshman at Colorado.
Another important factor is that his brother is Jalen Williams, who went 12th to the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2022 and has become one of the best young players in the league. And as we know, the NBA values bloodlines – Bronny James is going to be drafted purely based on them!
I think Williams could easily go anywhere from five to eight on Wednesday with the Pistons, Portland Trail Blazers, and Spurs all in need of a player like him. These odds imply a 53.49% probability he goes top eight with a $10 bet paying out $18.70.
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings
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NBA draft player props made Tuesday at 11:05 a.m. ET.
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