— Adam Shadoff FOX 35 (@FOX35Adam) June 20, 2022
I wrote about this interview in my NBA Draft analysis column earlier this week, as I believe in hindsight, there is something to glean from it. Weltman gave us his best poker face, declining to comment about the team's pre-draft process with Banchero. But when you dig deeper, it went against how the team handled their very public workouts with other the top prospects in this draft, most notably Jabari Smith and Chet Holmgren.
There was no shift in the odds towards Banchero after this interview; in fact, the market actually moved toward Holmgren as a direct result. But I believe it's safe to assume it raised some red flags among sharp bettors who monitor these interviews very closely.
Market shifts toward Banchero on Wednesday night
It wasn't until the eve of the draft when the real fun began. Notable NBA bettor Drew Dinsick documented this influx of smart money in a VSIN interview on Thursday, which started with a swift and decisive $10,000 bet on Banchero to win $25,000 at an offshore exchange.
“You knew something was cooking at that point,” Dinsick said. “The legal market just imploded from there on; the next hour was just incredible watching the market go. It was a professional move; this was not people passing around Twitter rumors.”
I woke up early on Thursday morning as per my routine (around 6 am ET) and was surprised to see Banchero sitting atop FanDuel's board at -210 to be drafted first overall. Then at 8:41 am ET, Woj dropped a bomb of misinformation.
As team boards finalize today, the 1-2-3 of the NBA Draft is increasingly firm, per sources: Jabari Smith to Orlando, Chet Holmgren to Oklahoma City and Paolo Banchero to Houston.