We're at the halfway mark of the season already. Teams are gaining or losing momentum, and we’re going to see trades that signal teams’ intentions to move toward next season (or beyond) or load up for the playoffs in the next few weeks. Let’s kick off the second half of the season with a look at the top, the middle and the bottom of my power ratings.
As always, this is not a subjective rating but the numbers I use to find value betting game-to-game, with the number representing the gap between the teams and an average team on a neutral court.
Manual adjustments have been made for injury and slight adjustments for how teams are currently playing, but ultimately, this is a quantitative, not qualitative, evaluation, and my power rankings would vary significantly.
Power Rating Top Five
The Celtics have stabilized a bit, partly thanks to a nice stretch of schedule where they got the Pelicans without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram and the Nets without Kevin Durant.
It's not that they're exceptional in this; players are out in every game night-to-night this season, but the bad teams aren't going to slow down the Celtics over the long haul. Honestly, at this point, nothing may slow them down; the lead they got off to in November may be too much.
This is I downgraded them a full three points because of the KD injury–that’s how good the Nets have been. They were decidedly the best team in the league by my power rating before Durant’s injury. They have a few easy spots coming up (Spurs, Suns without Booker, Pistons), but we’ll see if they remain stable without Durant.
I'm not sure why there's so much hesitancy around the 76ers. They're under the radar. They're not blowing you away every night, but look at the resume: 26-16 as of Sunday morning, top 10 in both offense and defense at Dunks And Threes.
The Sixers are also still +7 with James Harden on the court and +5.8 when Joel Embiid sits. They're playing the most underwhelming 50-win-pace season I can remember, which makes me wonder if it's a perception issue and not an actual one.
The Nuggets' ratings are finally starting to align with their record. They've won 16 of 19, and since losing to the Pistons at home before Thanksgiving, Denver has lost just one home game. The vibes are incredible. The ball is moving, and Jokic is a juggernaut pushing toward another MVP award.
I've been resistant to playoff futures on Cleveland. They're unproven; Evan Mobley and Darius Garland have zero playoff series played. Jarrett Allen only has two, playoff series played and nine games played in the two series.
But this team is so balanced on both ends. Donovan Mitchell has proven he can play up in big moments, and they're not one-dimensional. Are we sure this team isn't the East dark horse we've been looking for?
NOTE: If you're wondering where the tied-for-first-in-the-West Grizzlies are, they'll never look great in my model because of their halfcourt offense. Memphis is 24th in halfcourt offense, where most of the NBA-game offense takes place. That doesn't mean they aren't great or will finish outside the top three in the conference, but strictly under this projection, they won't look as good.
Memphis comes in sixth in my numbers based on their No. 1 halfcourt Defensive Rating. (Have I mentioned Jaren Jackson Jr. is Defensive Player of the Year?)
The Middle Five
“Steph's back! Warriors set to go on a run!”
“I'm being told the Warriors lost to the Zombie Suns at home.”
Golden State is probably going to make a run, still–it's just not going to be the kind of run that people are talking about. It's likely not an 18-2 run but more like a 13-7-ish run. They will probably be on the road for the playoffs for most, if not all, rounds.
There are a lot of folks who believe that the historical trend of teams being top-two seeds matters more than the context of this team. I'll go the other way: the Warriors have won the title every season that they've finished with all five starters available and are 4-1 when Steph, Klay and Draymond are on the floor for the final game of the season.
But regular season? I'm not sure the sharp curve correction is coming.
OKC is 6-2 in its last 10 and back to three-under-.500. They're top 20 in halfcourt offense, halfcourt defense, transition offense and transition defense.