NBA best bets and analysis for Tuesday, November 28th
NBA Betting Splits | NBA Odds | NBA Injury Reports
Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets (-2, 223)
Is there a point where Brooklyn’s blistering shooting comes back to the mean? The Nets are fourth in frequency of attempts from beyond the arc, and they are third in 3-point shooting (39.7%). Their accuracy on wide-open attempts is an insane 46.8%; the second-best team are the Mavericks which hit 42.2% of their wide-open 3-point attempts. It’s hard to bank on regression because the time at which it hits is random, but playing one of the best defenses in the NBA could help jump-start the process.
Toronto is a sound defensive team that allows just 112.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The Raptors give up an average amount of 3-point attempts, and do not allow a high frequency of uncontested looks. Their ability to rebound will limit the second-chance opportunities for the Nets – Brooklyn generates 19.1 putback plays per 100 missed attempts – and they are in better health. Nic Claxton is questionable to play tonight with an ankle sprain, Cam Thomas is doubtful and Ben Simmons remains out.
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (-12, 217.5)
Alex Caruso and Zach LaVine are questionable to play for Chicago tonight, and as a result the market is jumping on Boston. The Bulls are the worst cover team in the NBA at 5-12-1 ATS this season, and they are riding an 0-4 ATS slide into this game with the Celtics. Chicago has been subpar on both ends of the floor, but what has really struggled is its offense. The Bulls are averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions on the season, and without one of their primary offensive creators in LaVine, that could be much worse tonight. They rank in the 32nd percentile in offensive efficiency without LaVine on the floor, and their most used lineup averages just 0.806 points per possession.
Against Boston – which might not have Jrue Holiday – that is going to be a problem. It’s also a Celtics team which will be motivated to win by margin. Boston wins Group C and advances to the knockout stage of the In-Season Tournament with a win of 22 points or more. Whether they achieve that obviously remains to be seen, but the Celtics will attempt to win by a great margin, and against a lesser team like the Bulls it could happen. With that in mind, I’ll look to play the Celtics over their team total this evening.
Best Bets
Raptors ML (+105)
Celtics TT OV 116.5 (-110)