A new player-based model for handicapping NBA games
Those who handicap the NBA on a daily basis know how insane the grind can be. Most days are spent pouring through injury reports and news stories, trying to find out the latest on which players will and won’t play. When you find the information it is hard to calculate the value of certain players outside of stars like LeBron James or Nikola Jokic.
So, during the offseason, I went on a quest to work on a solution. I was inspired by bettors I have interacted with on social media like Raheem Palmer (The Ringer) and Matt Meiselman (Value Betting) who have player-based models that can account for individual absences. It is an invaluable tool to use throughout the regular season.
Those familiar with my work on the website know that I spent the summer learning how to craft a rudimentary NFL model that I am currently using for the SuperContest. I decided to use some of those principles to work on my own player-based model for the NBA season.
Before diving into the model itself, I want to acknowledge Andrew Mack, who wrote the two books that helped me build both Jon Von Model 1.0 (NFL) and Jon Von Model 2.0 (NBA). Those who wish to get into building models should check out his books as they were resources I leaned on quite a bit in building these out.