Navy vs. SMU Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 10-14-2022
Navy vs. SMU Prediction, Preview, and Odds – 10-14-2022

Navy (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) travels to Dallas to face SMU (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS)at Gerald J. Ford Stadium on Friday at 7:30pmET in an AAC matchup. Navy is 2-1 in the American, while the Mustangs are 0-1.

Last season, SMU beat Navy 31-24 on the road as a 13.5-point favorite.

The Mids are coming off a 53-21 win at home over Tulsa last Saturday, while the Mustangs fell at UCF 41-19 on Oct. 5.

 

When Navy is at their best, they control the clock, run the football and occasionally throw a measure of surprise in with a pass, reverse, or option pass. On Saturday in their 32-point win over Tulsa, starting QB Tai Lavatai completed 1 of 6 for 9 yards. Who cares? Navy is an option team and ran the ball 69 times for 455 yards and possessed the ball for 40:26.

Fullback Daba Fofana (5-8,205) led the way with 159 yards on 21 carries with the TDs. Vincent Terrell II added 93 yards and one TD. Slotback Kai Puailoa-Rojas threw a 26-yard touchdown pass to Lavatai with 10:06 left in the third quarter to ice the game. Nathan Kent also had a 70-yard rushing touchdown on a reverse.

Navy's offense put up 53 points against Tulsa, which was more than they had scored combined all season in FBS games against Air Force (13-10 loss), ECU (23-20ot win),  Memphis (37-13 loss). Even after a big game against the Golden Hurricane, the Mids rank 110th in points per game (21.2) and 104th in total yards per game (342). They now rank 12th in rushing (232ypg), which is the most important category for an option team.

Defensively, Navy has been solid, though they've struggled against the pass (262.2ypg, 103rd) and that's a concern against SMU. But they are excellent against the run (86.8 ypg) and are allowing just 21 points per game (39th).

  
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