The Washington Nationals (+220) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-275) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens in Game 1 of their doubleheader.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 55-104 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 84-75 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 45 away games (+23.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 50 games (+20.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 46 away games (+18.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 60 games (+24.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 58 of his last 77 games (+20.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 46 games at home (+19.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 away games (+10.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 24 away games (+10.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 24 away games (+10.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 78 away games (+8.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 92 games (+8.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 72 games at home (+21.32 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 121 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games at home (+11.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 47 games (+6.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 159 games (+6.95 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 71-88 against the Run Line (-23.75 Units / -12.44% ROI).
- 55-104 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.65 Units / -10.13% ROI
- 74-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -5.47% ROI
- 76-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -2.67% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 84-75 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 3.5% ROI).
- 98-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 0.73% ROI
- 84-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +9 Units / 5.12% ROI
- 68-84 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.2 Units / -13.86% ROI
Cory Abbott: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .212 (11-for-52) against Paolo Espino on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .338 — 97th Percentile.
Paolo Espino has averaged 88.5 MPH on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.
Paolo Espino has averaged 71.2 MPH on curveballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 79.2 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .241 (54-for-224) against Paolo Espino with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .169 — second Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .699 (58 Total Bases / 83 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .415 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .691 (76 Total Bases / 110 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .380 (35-for-92) against Carlos Carrasco’s elevated fastball this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .224 — first Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .699 (58 Total Bases / 83 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: .415 — 0 Percentile.