The Washington Nationals (+195) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-250) on Thursday, April 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 9-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 13-12 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+5.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 5 games (+5.85 Units / 103% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+5.60 Units / 78% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 11 away games (+5.50 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+7.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Eduardo Escobar has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.50 Units / 108% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+8.85 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+7.25 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+6.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 42% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 25 games (+1.95 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+0.85 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 14-9 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 19.07% ROI).
- 9-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.3 Units / 10% ROI
- 9-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.9 Units / -15.54% ROI
- 12-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.3 Units / 9% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 13-12 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 6.38% ROI).
- 14-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -2.3% ROI
- 10-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -19.6% ROI
- 14-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 11.76% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (328/371) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of just 3% (1 SO in 31 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (26/183) against Trevor Williams this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 13% (11/83) against Trevor Williams this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joey Lucchesi has pitched 17.1 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Pete Fairbanks has the longest active streak at 29.1.
Joey Lucchesi had a first-pitch strike rate of 83% (19/23) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Joey Lucchesi has not allowed a home run in any of the last 17.1 innings he’s appeared — Shohei Ohtani has the longest active streak at 77.0.