The Washington Nationals (+165) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-200) on Saturday, September 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Miami.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5.

The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 51-97 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 70-79 ATS.

Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.

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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 43 away games (+23.15 Units / 52% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 44 away games (+18.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 41 games (+17.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 44 away games (+16.50 Units / 27% ROI)
• Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

• Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
• Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 46% ROI)

Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 76 of their last 137 games (+15.40 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 away games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals

• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.70 Units / 60% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 42 games at home (+4.35 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.25 Units / 4% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 66-82 against the Run Line (-22.8 Units / -12.72% ROI).

• 51-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.8 Units / -10.95% ROI
• 70-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -3.56% ROI
• 69-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -4.51% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 70-79 against the Run Line (-20.35 Units / -10.36% ROI).

• 62-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.75 Units / -17.3% ROI
• 67-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.3 Units / -9.21% ROI
• 75-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 0.94% ROI

Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Erick Fedde has allowed an OBP of .323 (263 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.

Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (875/1,661) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

Erick Fedde has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 55% (452/828) of opposing batters since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 61% (1,332/2,194) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (949/1,321) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (94/520) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (123/221) against Sandy Alcantara in two-strike counts this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 93rd Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 22 times this season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

  
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