The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-165) on Wednesday, March 6, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:10pm EST in Jupiter, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 5-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 4-4 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 54.7% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jeter Downs has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.80 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jonathan Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 81 away games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Nationals are 4-4 against the Run Line (-1.16 Units / -11.43% ROI).
- 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.73 Units / 40.9% ROI
- 4-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.68 Units / 7.69% ROI
- 3-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.46 Units / -16.63% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 4-4 against the Run Line (-0.2 Units / -2.03% ROI).
- 2-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -30.58% ROI
- 1-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -75.69% ROI
- 7-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +6 Units / 70.18% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .293 (210-for-717) against Patrick Corbin in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin had a strikeout rate of just 16% (124/790) in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin had a strike rate of just 57% (438/762) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin had a strikeout rate of just 14% (26/189) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
40% of Jesus Luzardo’s called strikeouts were elevated in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo had an average fastball velocity of 96.8 MPH in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.0 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 50% (181/361) against Jesus Luzardo on sliders in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 50% (181/361) against Jesus Luzardo on breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.