As we exit out of the MLB All-Star break, we have three divisions that seem to be solidified, with the Yankees (AL East), Astros (AL West) and Dodgers (NL West) holding leads of at least nine games. Those teams have obviously played consistently good baseball and their records reflect it. The other three divisions show races with less than a three-game lead at the top of the standings. With around 70 games left, those three races are still up in the air.
It’s in those three divisions — AL Central, NL East, NL Central — where simulating the rest of the season based on current power ratings, injury situations and remaining schedule can pay dividends, particularly when you match the current division win odds against the results.
Some important points before I reveal the projections I’ve come up with based on my current power ratings:
— My current power ratings obviously don’t account for any potential trade-deadline deals that may occur before the end of this month. Unlike last year, when Max Scherzer and a few others were moved, the big names on this year’s market don’t amount to total game-changers. However, positional players such as Willson Contreras, Bryan Reynolds, Josh Bell and Andrew Benintendi could bolster lineups. Starting pitchers Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas or Pablo Lopez could improve rotations. If you have a reasonable gauge on which teams might be selling and which might be buying in the next week or so, you should feel comfortable bumping my projections up or down.