Montana and South Dakota State will compete in the FCS Championship on Sunday, and we look at whether the Jackrabbits can win their second straight title with our top Montana vs. South Dakota State prediction based on the best college football odds.
The 2023 FCS Championship pits two of the top teams in the nation against each other, though there's a considerable gap in talent between No. 1 South Dakota State (14-0) and No. 2 Montana (13-1).
The showdown will take place at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX, with the game kicking off at 2 p.m. ET.
The Jackrabbits enter as two-touchdown favorites despite the Grizzlies having an impressive season of their own.
Can Montana pull off the upset, or will South Dakota State go back-to-back?
Here is our best Montana vs. South Dakota State prediction and our college football picks (o dds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Montana vs. South Dakota State prediction: FCS Championship
Editor's note: This spread has moved to -14 across the board, making it one to avoid with the game rapidly approaching.
It might seem a bit square to lay nearly two touchdowns in the FCS Championship, but that's how dominant South Dakota State has been thus far. The Jackrabbits are on a 28-game win streak, and only two of those games were within a single possession.
South Dakota State looked mortal in a 23-12 win over Villanova during the FCS quarterfinals, but weather impacted that game. The Jackrabbits proceeded to roll past UAlbany, 59-0, in the semifinals last time out.
The Jackrabbits are loaded on both sides of the ball, with an offense led by quarterback Mark Gronowski and running back Is aiah Davis. Gronowski was a Walter Payton Award finalist after throwing for 2,8883 yards and recording 35 total touchdowns. Davis is the best running back at the FCS level, recording 4,461 yards and 49 touchdowns in his four-year career.
But what makes this South Dakota State team truly special is its defense. The Jackrabbits lead the nation in scoring defense, giving up just 9.7 points per contest. No team has scored more than 21 points against them, with seven opponents scoring in the single digits.
Montana has had a remarkable run, winning 10 straight games since falling at Northern Arizona in late September. The Grizzlies have needed overtime in their previous two wins to get to this point. But this is where their run comes to an end.
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Montana vs. South Dakota State best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota State -13 | South Dakota State -12.5 | South Dakota State -12.5 | South Dakota State -12.5 | South Dakota State -12.5 |
| -110 | -110 | -120 | -110 | -110 |
Three of our best sports betting apps are offering standards -110 odds to lay 12.5 points with South Dakota State. We chose FanDuel out of personal preference, particularly because that same shop is offering -105 odds on the Jackrabbits to win by 14-plus points.
Most public projections are expecting a comfortable win for South Dakota State, including a 19-point margin of victory via SP+. Pinnacle, which is one of the sharper shops among the best sportsbooks, is charging -116 on the same spread. That's a sign that this number may move, and it's worth scooping up this current line before Sunday.
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Montana vs. South Dakota State odds analysis
For the most part, the lines on the FCS Championship haven't moved much. The spread has hovered around 12.5 and 13 at all of our best sports betting sites, while the total has been steady at 49.5 via our best live betting sites.
Montana vs. South Dakota State game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 7 at 2 p.m. ET
- Where: Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX
- How to watch: ABC
- Weather: 45 degrees, 10-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation
Montana-South Dakota State prediction made Thursday at 11:25 a.m. ET.
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