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The Montana State Bobcats of the FCS are double-digit road favorites over the New Mexico Lobos.
The Lobos trotted out one of the worst defenses in the FBS last season, allowing 35.1 points per game. They were better offensively while averaging 27.3 points. Now Bronco Mendenhall returns to the sideline for his first head coaching stint since leading the Virginia Cavaliers from 2016 to 2021.
Mendenhall and the Lobos will take on one of the best FBS teams from 2023. The Bobcats averaged 39.9 points per game, and they return many key pieces on the offensive side, including starting quarterback Tommy Mellott.
Best Montana State vs. New Mexico picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Game pick: New Mexico (+390 via bet365) vs. Montana State ??
- Game prop: Both teams to score 25-plus points (+235 via DraftKings) ??
Montana State vs. New Mexico prediction: Week 0
It makes sense that the Bobcats are favored in this game. They boast a quarterback who does a great job taking care of the football, and Julius Davis is a solid option as a No. 1 running back.
But while their offense shouldn't struggle to score in this game, the difficulties may come on the other side of the ball. They allowed 21-plus points six times last season, and 30-plus on three different occasions.
Devon Dampier takes over as the Lobos' starting quarterback in 2024. While many will shudder at the idea of a backup on a 4-8 team now becoming the starter, I actually think the move will work out early in the season.
Dampier received action in nine games last season. He finished with 525 passing yards, a comp letion percentage of 62.5%, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. He also ran for 328 yards and four touchdowns. The offense should score in the 30s if he plays mistake-free football. Then it just comes down to the defense making a few stops in front of the squad's home crowd.
DraftKings is offering the Lobos' moneyline at +370, which is a good price. But bet365 is offering an even better price of +390.
We'd still take the Lobos at +12.5 to secure at least one victory for this game. But winning $39 on a $10 bet that could realistically hit is simply too good to pass up.
Best odds: +390 via bet365 | Implied probability: 20.41%
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Montana State vs. New Mexico game prop
This is another long shot, but it's the ideal time to go for it. Dampier isn't as green as the spread for this game would make you think. While he hasn't been given a lot of meaningful action, Dampier being on the field a bit could make all the difference here.
When you pair the Lobos' terrible defense with the Bobcats' offense, it's safe to assume that Montana State will score more than 25 in this game. Will the Lobos enjoy the same success? We think so. After all, they did score 25-plus points six times during a terrible season last year.
DraftKings is alone among our best sports betting sites while offering this prop. The price is more than worth playing as it is now, so there's no need to wait around. This is going to be an offensive game for 60 minutes.
Best odds: +235 v ia DraftKings | Implied probability: 29.85%
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Montana State vs. New Mexico odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Montana State vs. New Mexico game info
- When: Saturday, Aug. 24
- Kick off: 4 p.m. ET
- Where: University Stadium (NM), Albuquerque, NM
- How to watch: FS1
- Weather: 90 degrees, 20% chance of rain
- Favorite: Montana State (-525 via bet365)
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