A lot of bettors refuse to handicap trends in any sport in fear they will always be chasing information that has maxed itself out. However, I am of the belief that certain trends reveal strengths and weaknesses of teams that aren’t likely to change until an out-of-the-norm situation changes.
In baseball, this can come from injuries, lineup changes, coaching changes, etc. In the absence of any such volatility, it makes sense to give good consideration to team tendencies, especially when they are derived from a significant sample size. Now at the All-Star break, we have reached the point of being able to trust them.
Let’s take a look at some of the more definitive team tendencies that have formed in 2022. I’ll reveal the angles and stats leading to the huge variations, plus looking ahead to some spots after the break in which we can take advantage of these angles.
Note that these numbers are taken right from the “MLB Team Reports,” published in each issue of Point Spread Weekly. You can also find these numbers updated daily on the MLB stats pages at VSiN.com.
I’ve always believed baseball is a great sport for data handicapping. This exercise is a great place to start and includes analysis for 15 of the league’s 30 teams.
Arizona
Trend: Arizona is 14-14 (+ 2.98 units) versus left-handed starting pitchers but just 26-38 (-9.29 units) versus right-handers.
Explanation: The Diamondbacks have produced 0.8 more runs per game and are hitting .036 better against left-handed starting pitchers. Unfortunately, the opportunities for Arizona to thrive have been limited as they have only faced 28 lefties in 92 games.
Out of the break: Arizona has a chance to see at least one lefty in each of its first three series versus Washington, San Francisco and Atlanta.
Atlanta
Trends: Atlanta is 41-21 (+ 12.67 units) at night but just 15-17 (-9.57 units) in day games. The Braves have also been far more effective versus left-handed starters (23-9, + 9.47 units) than versus righties (33-29, -6.37 units).
Explanation: You would think the Braves would be better in the heat of day games, being more acclimated to hot weather than most opponents, but that hasn’t been the case. They score 0.7 runs fewer per game during the day. In terms of the pitching opponent, their lineup is loaded with right-handed sluggers, a sound explanation for their ability to beat up on left-handed starters to the tune of 5.7 runs per game.
Out of the break: The Braves will probably see the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani in a night game and will be on a two-night, one-day rotation for much of the second half. Their first shot at getting to some lefties could come against the Diamondbacks in their third series.
Boston
Trend: The Red Sox have struggled versus divisional foes (12-26, -15.6 units) but have thrived against other AL opposition (31-14, + 14.9 units).
Explanation: It’s fair to say the AL East is baseball’s most dominant division. However, that doesn’t excuse the Red Sox’s inability to gain any ground when facing their biggest rivals. They are scoring almost 2.0 runs per game fewer in divisional contests.
Out of the break: Boston starts the second half with a huge divisional series at home against the Blue Jays. After that, they won’t see another AL East foe until Aug. 11, perhaps giving the Red Sox a chance to make a run up the standings.
Chicago Cubs
Trends: The Cubs are 20-21 (+ 0.5 units) versus NL Central teams but just 15-36 (-17.4 units) in all other games. They have also been far more competitive in day games (16-19, + 1.2 units) than at night (19-38, -18.9 units).
Explanation: These are unfortunate trends for the Cubs because the spots in which they are most competitive pale in quantity of games compared to spots in which they’ve struggled. Against divisional foes, the Cubs’ lineup produces 5.3 runs per game. In all other games, they score shy of 3.5. The numbers aren’t quite as dramatic in the day/night splits but a noteworthy production drop still exists.
Out of the break: Wouldn’t you know it, just two of the Cubs’ first 13 games out of the break are day games and just five of their first 18 are against divisional foes. Unless something changes dramatically, the Cubs will be a team to fade regularly in the next few weeks.
Chicago White Sox
Trend: The White Sox are 19-25 (-15.8 units) at home compared to 27-21 (+ 8.7 units) on the road.