Something I like to look at as we approach the All-Star Game are the workloads for young pitchers. Baseball is a hard game and playing at the highest level is extremely stressful. It can lead to some second-half downturns for pitchers experiencing the full grind for the first time.
Minor league seasons are a month shorter. Every minor league has a universal schedule with Mondays off. Pitchers are usually held to stricter pitch counts and have innings limits.
Teams will have to make some big decisions regarding their young pitchers the rest of the way, and those pitchers are the subject of this week’s Regression Report.
Shane McClanahan (Rays)
Let’s start with the three AL Cy Young candidates in line for huge workload increases. McClanahan topped out at 123.1 innings last season and has already thrown 104.1 this season. He’s having an incredible year with a 1.73 ERA, 2.28 xERA and 2.48 FIP. His 88.2% LOB% and the gap between his ERA and FIP suggest some natural regression, but the extra second-half strain could also be a factor. An innings limit might make sense, as past Rays pitchers to throw 130+ innings include Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Yonny Chirinos, who all have been hurt or jettisoned from the roster.