Happy Mother's Day to all the moms out there as another exciting week of Major League Baseball ends. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the leading MLB odds from our best sportsbooks.
The whole American League East continues to flex its muscles, as all five teams are at least four games over .500. The New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays are also on the verge of sweeping series against the two best teams in baseball, the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves, respectively.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and WynnBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Sunday's MLB schedule and odds
- Los Angeles Angels (- 110) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-110)
- New York Mets (-210) vs. Washington Nationals (+180)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (+110) vs. Baltimore Orioles (-130)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-125) vs. New York Yankees (+105)
- Atlanta Braves (-110) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-110)
- Cincinnati Reds (+140) vs. Miami Marlins (-165)
- Seattle Mariners (-175) vs. Detroit Tigers (+150)
- Chicago Cubs (-105) vs. Minnesota Twins (-115)
- Houston Astros (-135) vs. Chicago White Sox (+115)
- Kansas City Royals (+140) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-165)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-165) vs. Colorado Rockies (+140)
- Texas Rangers (-145) vs. Oakland Athletics (+125)
- San Diego Padres (+150) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-175)
- San Francisco Giants (-145) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+125)
- St. Louis Cardinals (-120) vs. Boston Red Sox (+100)
Sunday's MLB best bets
- Player Prop: Clarke Schmidt Over 2.5 earned runs (-125 via DraftKings) vs. Rays ???
- Player Prop: Charlie Blackmon Over 0.5 runs scored (+110 via DraftKings) vs. Phillies ???
- Player Prop: Andrew Heaney Under 17.5 outs recorded (+105 via DraftKings) vs. Athletics ????
- Upset: Diamondbacks ML vs. Giants (+130 via WynnBet) ????
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Sunday's MLB prop picks
If not for injuries to three New York Yankees starting pitchers, righty Clarke Schmidt would have likely already been removed from the rotation or designated for assignment.
Schmidt has done well to lower his ERA from 8.79 to 5.35 over his last five starts, allowing two or fewer runs in two outings. But those solid starts ca me against the Oakland Athletics and Cleveland Guardians, two of the American League's three lowest-scoring teams. Schmidt is in for a much tougher task against a Tampa Bay Rays offense that leads the majors in runs scored, wRC+, wOBA, and slugging.
Though Schmidt's walk and strikeout rates are the best of his career, he doesn't fare well when balls are put in play. His barrels allowed, expected slugging, and hard-hit percentage rank 13th or worse. The Rays should again find success at the plate, especially considering Schmidt's BABIP allowed is .380 and his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio is on pace for the second-worst of his career.
DraftKings provides slightly more value than Caesars (-129) for this prop among our best sports betting apps.
Check out our MLB MVP odds.
Philadelphia Phillies righty Aaron Nola has been e njoying success against the Colorado Rockies during his career, going 4-1 across eight starts. And while his ERA is a respectable 3.96 over four starts at Coors Field, his eight strikeouts over the veteran's previous 12 1/3 innings are much lower than his usual strikeout rate. That suggests Rockies hitters are seeing the ball better.
Leadoff man Charlie Blackmon is one of those players who's been successful against Nola, going 8-for-21 with an OPS of 1.101. Ryan McMahon and Kris Bryant have posted an OPS of .873 and .949 against him, respectively, so Blackmon will get outstanding protection in the lineup and plenty of batters who can bring him around.
Among our best sports betting sites, FanDuel doesn't list any runs scored odds for Blackmon, and Caesars offers slightly worse +106 odds.
Check out our MLB rookie of the year odds.
Andrew Heaney is averaging just over five innings per start in 2023. But more short outings are on the horizon if his BB/9 remains at 4.0 (29th percentile). The southpaw faces an Oakland Athletics team that will benefit from a favorable hitting split.
Oakland has posted an OBP of 303 and is slugging .376 with a .152 ISO against righties. But those numbers increase to .334, .432, and .167, respectively, against left-handed pitching. And although the A's remain the only team in baseball yet to reach the 10-win mark, their offense has been heating up while scoring five-plus runs in four of their last nine games. Carlos Perez enters on a six-game hitting streak, and Brent Rooker reached base safely in each of the team's previous 10 contests before his pinch-hit appearance Saturday. He also leads the league in slugging (.667).
This is a four-star play, as the Over has cashed in six of the previous nine meeting s in Oakland between these clubs, and it's 5-1 during the Athletics' last six at home against a left-handed starting pitcher. Additionally, the Rangers' bullpen is well-rested after Jon Gray pitched eight solid innings Saturday, and that could lead to a quick hook for Heaney.
Heading to DraftKings after looking at our best live betting sites for this wager is a no-brainer. We're getting plus-money odds compared to the -107 found through Caesars.
Check out our MLB home run leader odds.
Sunday's MLB game picks
The San Francisco Giants haven't lost a four-game road series against the Arizona Diamondbacks since 2017. In fact, the Giants are 8-3-3 in four-game series at Arizona, but they're on the precipice of losing a rare four-game set against their division rivals on Sunday.
Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt is the organization's No. 3 prospect, and he's been struggling while giving up six home runs in just 9 2/3 innings this campaign. That could be a problem against a Giants offense that's hit the third-most home runs in MLB (61). However, there should be better days ahead for Madison Bumgarner's replacement, as ZIPS still projects him to be the team's second-best starting pitcher with a 2.8 fWAR.
This is a also a four-star play because Arizona strikes out at the second-lowest rate among all NL teams, and the Giants are the NL's worst club at making contact (25.4% strikeout rate).
WynnBet is the only sportsbook offering the Diamondbacks at higher than +125 odds.
MLB best bets made 5/14/2023 at 7:46 a.m. ET.
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