It might be only early May, but many games this weekend will significantly impact division races around Major League Baseball. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.
Veteran righty Adam Wainwright makes his season debut for the St. Louis Cardinals after suffering a groin injury in the World Baseball Classic. However, we prefer to take a wait-and-see approach before backing his pitching props.
So, which hurlers and hitters make Saturday's best bets column?
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday (odds via DraftKings, PointsBet, and Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's MLB schedule and odds
- Detroit Tigers (+175) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-205)
- Miami Marlins (+145) vs. Chicago Cubs (-170)
- Colorado Rockies (+170) vs. New York Mets (-200)
- New York Yankees (+160) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
- Minnesota Twins (-115) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-105)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-135) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+115)
- Chicago White Sox (+105) vs. Cincinnati Reds (-125)
- Oakland Athletics (+140) vs. Kansas City Royals (-165)
- Baltimore Orioles (+200) vs. Atlanta Braves (-240)
- Boston Red Sox (+120) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-140)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+145) vs. San Francisco Giants (-170)
- Washington Nationals (+125) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-145)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-105) vs. San Diego Padres (-115)
- Texas Rangers (+100) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-120)
- Houston Astros (+100) vs. Seatt le Mariners (-120)
Saturday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Steven Kwan Over 0.5 runs (+125 via DraftKings) vs. Twins ???
- Player prop: Spencer Strider Over 8.5 strikeouts (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Orioles ????
- Player prop: Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 RBIs (+115 via DraftKings) vs. Mariners ????
- Upset: Red Sox (+130 via WynnBet) vs. Phillies ????
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Saturday's MLB prop picks
This qualifies as a bold prediction, as the Cleveland Guardians face Minnesota Twins righty Sonny Gray, who has allowed one or fewer runs in all six starts this season while completing five-plus innings in each. However, the Minnesota Twins' bullpen has not exactly been lights-out in the latter innings of Gray's starts, as the opposition has scored four or more runs in two of the previous three.
Nevertheless, Kwan has good career numbers against Gray, going 5-for-10 with just one strikeout and a 1.455 OPS. Kwan is backed in the lineup by Josh Naylor, who has hit two home runs off Gray and also has a 1.455 OPS in 10 career at-bats.
This is a three-star play, as Kwan's eight stolen bases are tied for 12th in the majors, and he is a threat to put himself in scoring position every time he reaches base.
The +125 odds found at DraftKings are slightly better than the +115 at FanDuel and +120 at Caesars.
In Spencer Strider's last start against the New York Mets, he recorded “just” eight strikeouts, a season-low among his six starts. Thus, his nine-game streak with nine-plus strikeouts ended two shy of the MLB record.
Despite also allowing a season-high four earned runs in that game, manager Brian Snitker allowed his young ace to gut through a season-high 107 pitches, and Strider is the only Atlanta Braves starter to average over 100 pitches per start (100.2).
Strider's relatively poor start was likely a product of unusual circumstances, as he pitched on six days' rest after his regularly scheduled start was pushed back twice because of rain. In addition, Strider was facing a division rival for the sixth time in his career but should dominate an Orioles lineup that has never seen his impressive arsenal.
This is a four-star play, even though Baltimore collectively has the seventh-lowest strikeout rate (21.0%).
FanDuel has by far the most reasonable price for this prop, as DraftKings and Caesars are as high as -130 and -133, respectively.
Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez snapped a five-game streak without an RBI (he had three in Friday's game), which followed a string of three straight games with two RBIs. However, his RBI drought is due to end against Seattle Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales, against whom he's slashing .438/.476/.875 in 16 career at-bats.
Gonzales has struggled mightily with Houston in his career, going 2-9 with a 4.89 ERA in 14 appearances (13 starts). As a result, the Astros are one of two teams that Gonzales is more than one game under .500 against in his career. This is a four-star play, as Gonzales's 2.9 BB/9 rate is on pace to be his worst since 2015, and his ERA+ has not been this bad since 2017.
Given that Alvarez had driven in two-plus runs in the last four games in which he has had an RBI, we would not be opposed to also backing his 2+ RBI prop at FanDuel for +370 odds.
Saturday's MLB game picks
The result of this game should come down to whether the Boston Red Sox break out the bats. The Red Sox are 18-3 when scoring five or more runs but 2-11 when scoring four or fewer. Considering Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Bailey Falter has allowed at least four runs in three of his last four starts (the team is 0-4 in that stretch), the Red Sox should be in for another slugfest and subsequent win.
This is a four-star play as Boston entered Friday ranked first in the majors in hits and doubles, second in batting average, on-base percentage, and runs, third in slugging and OPS, and fifth in home runs. The Red Sox also began the weekend tied for the third-best run line record (14-6) when underdogs this season, but we are opting for the better value and expecting them to win outright.
WynnBet is the only sportsbook offering higher than +122 odds for the Red Sox to win outright.
MLB best bets made 5/6/2023 at 7:09 a.m. ET.
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