The second week of May begins with 11 new series openers around Major League Baseball. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
Of the 11 games to be played Monday, just two are between teams with winning records. The top two teams in the American League East battle as the Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays. In the National League, two division leaders face off as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via DraftKings, FanDuel, and Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's MLB schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Detroit Tigers (+165) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-195)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-175) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+150)
- Colorado Rockies (+150) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (-175)
- Oakland Athletics (+185) vs. New York Yankees (-215)
- Chicago White Sox (-130) vs. Kansas City Royals (+110)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-110) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-110)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+125) vs. Chicago Cubs (-145)
- Houston Astros (-115) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-105)
- Miami Marlins (+185) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-215)
- Texas Rangers (+145) vs. Seattle Mariners (-170)
- Washington Nationals (+195) vs. San Francisco Giants (-230)
Monday's MLB best bets
- Player prop: Mitch Keller to record win (+140 via DraftKings) vs. Rockies ???< /b>
- Player prop: Zack Greinke Under 2.5 earned runs (-105 via Caesars) vs. White Sox ???
- Player prop: Kyle Tucker to hit home run (+475 via DraftKings) vs. Angels ???
- Run line: Guardians -1.5 (+114 via FanDuel) vs. Tigers ????
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Monday's MLB prop picks
The Pittsburgh Pirates have lost a season-high seven consecutive games, but a potential remedy is a home series with a Colorado Rockies team that went a National League worst 27-54 on the road last season. The Rockies are already five games under .500 on the road this season (third-worst in the National League), and the Pirates have feasted on poor competition, going 12-6 against teams under .500 this year. Furthermore, the Pirates are 13-0 this season when hitting two-plus home runs. The Rockies have allowed at least two home runs in three of Kyle Freeland's last five starts, including in a 14-3 home loss to Pittsburgh on April 17.
Mitch Keller is second among all Pirates starters in WHIP (1.20) and WAR (0.6). And per Stuff+, his fastball has been electric, ranking 18th among all qualified starting pitchers. Keller also has a 0.16 Win Probability Added rating (per FanGraphs), while the league average is minus-2.61. We expect him to lead the team to victory against Freeland, as the Pirates are 6-4 against left-handed starting pitchers this season.
At DraftKings, we are getting a good return on a team that is -175 to win the game outright to back its starting pitcher to earn a win at plus-money odds. That's a much better price than those at any of our other best MLB betting sites.
Zack Greinke's 5.25 ERA is on pace to be the second-worst of his career (his worst since pitching to a 5.80 ERA in 2005), and he has finished with a worse FIP than his current 5.00 number just once in his career. However, Greinke has had success against the Chicago White Sox, going 5-0 in his last nine starts against them dating back to 2010 and pitching to a 3.08 ERA in that span. In addition, he has held current White Sox hitters to a .284/.311/.383 slash line in 141 combined at-bats.
This is a three-star play, as Chicago is dealing with a ton of injuries to its lineup and recently lost Eloy Jimenez for four-to-six weeks following his recent appendectomy.
Both Caesars and DraftKings are offering -105 odds for this prop.
Houston Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker's six home runs are one off the team lead. However, he has the second-highest OPS of any Astros hitter with at least 100 at-bats and just as many total bases (and 10 fewer strikeouts) than arguably Houston's most feared hitter, Yordan Alvarez.
Tucker faces Los Angeles Angels southpaw Patrick Sandoval, against whom he is 5-for-11 (.455) with three extra-base hits, including two home runs. Sandoval has failed to complete five innings in two of his three starts against teams with a winning record this season.
This is again a three-star play, as left-handed hitters have combined for just 15 at-bats against Sandoval, but they have six hits and an OPS of 1.038.
DraftKings offers by far the best value for this play, as FanDuel and Caesars are at +360 and +430, respectively.
Monday's MLB game picks
The Cleveland Guardians are just 11-11 in their last 22 games against the Detroit Tigers, but it was not long ago (from 2016 to 2019) that Cleveland was at least seven games over its division rival each year for four consecutive years. The Guardians hope that dominance continues for years to come with youngster Tanner Bibee on the mound, who is making his third MLB start.
Bibee has pitched to a solid 0.91 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 rate in two starts and has shown impressive command with zero walks in 11 innings. The Tigers have won five of their last six and two consecutive series against the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets, but we do not expect them to pound out 10-plus hits Monday, a key number since they are 8-0 when doing so.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering better than +105 odds to lay the -1.5 runs with the favorites.
MLB best bets made 5/8/2023 at 6:19 a.m. ET.
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- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
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